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Arthur wrote: It is also political. The Clintons are getting ready to
run for the White House, again. Perhaps, but so is John McCain, who is directly involved in shaping
critical policies that define us as a nation in war. Unlike 2000, he has postured himself for 2008 as the natural
heir to Bush, not his opposite, tying up this ineffective Congress further with
quasi-resistance to enhance his front man image. And my point about Ben Gurion was that he was historically much more
than the radical he had once been. This may be blunt but it’s time everyone admitted that Bush 43 has
proven it’s better to have a complicated, smart, engaged, multidimensional
person in the Oval Office than one who purports to be morally superior (and
divinely appointed) but is intellectually inferior, one dimensional - and
detached. As one of the leading black legislators said a couple of years ago, GWB
has once and for all settled the question of white supremacy. – kwc The October Surprise
By Gary Hart,
September 23, 2006 Gary Hart is a former Democratic Colorado Senator, international consultant
and co-chair of the US Commission on National Security for the 21st Century,
which produced the most comprehensive review of national security since 1947
and predicted the terrorist attacks on the US. His most recent book is The Fourth Power: a
new grand strategy for the United States in the 21st century
(Oxford University Press, July, 2004). It
should come as no surprise if the Bush Administration undertakes a preemptive
war against Iran sometime before the November election. Were these more normal times, this
would be a stunning possibility, quickly dismissed by thoughtful people as
dangerous, unprovoked, and out of keeping with our national character. But we
do not live in normal times. And we do not have a government much concerned with our national
character. If anything, our current Administration is out to remake our
national character into something it has never been. The
steps will be these:
Air Force tankers will be deployed to fuel B-2 bombers, Navy cruise missile
ships will be positioned at strategic points in the northern Indian Ocean and
perhaps the Persian Gulf, unmanned drones will collect target data, and
commando teams will refine those data. The latter two steps are already being
taken. Then the president
will speak on national television. He will say this: Iran is determined to
develop nuclear weapons; if this happens, the entire region will go nuclear;
our diplomatic efforts to prevent this have failed; Iran is offering a haven to
known al Qaeda leaders; the fate of our ally Israel is at stake; Iran persists
in supporting terrorism, including in Iraq; and sanctions will have no affect
(and besides they are for sissies). He will not say: ...and besides, we need
the oil. Therefore, he will
announce, our own national security and the security of the region requires us
to act. "Tonight, I have ordered the elimination of all facilities in Iran
that are dedicated to the production of weapons of mass destruction....."
In the narrowest terms this includes perhaps 2 dozen targets. Embracing this reverie
requires believing in the Iranian Ahmed Chalabi, or perhaps even Mr. Chalabi
himself since he has been working both sides of the street in both countries
for some time. It does not involve
much imagination to understand the timing. The U.S. is poised to adopt a
Congressional regime change of its own in November. A political strategy
totally based on fear can offer few other options to prevent this. Besides,
occupation by Democrats of even one house of Congress in January would make
this scheme more difficult (one would certainly hope). Further, time for
super-power military conquest may be running short in the emerging age of
fourth generation warfare. "...the age of Western military ascendancy is
coming to an end." ("No Win," Andrew Bacevich, The Boston Globe,
August 27, 2006). The consequences? The
sunny neoconservatives whose goal has been to become the neo-imperial Middle
Eastern power all along will forecast few. But prudent leaders calculate all
the risks, and they are historic. These
include:
violent reaction throughout the Islamic world; a dramatic increase in jihadist
attacks in European capitals and the U.S.; radicalization of Islamic youth
behind a new generation of jihadist leaders; consolidation of support for
Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaeda, and a rapidly spreading malignant network;
escalating expansion of anti-American sentiment throughout the world, including
the democratic world; and the formation of WWIII battle lines between the U.S.
and the Arab and Islamic worlds. In more rational
times, including at the height of the Cold War, bizarre actions such as
unilateral, unprovoked, preventive war are dismissed by thoughtful, seasoned,
experienced men and women as mad. But those qualities do not characterize our
current leadership. For a divinely guided
president who imagines himself to be a latter day Winston Churchill (albeit
lacking the ability to formulate intelligent sentences), and who professedly
does not care about public opinion at home or abroad, anything is possible, and
dwindling days in power may be seen as making the most apocalyptic actions
necessary. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gary-hart/the-october-surprise_b_30086.html |
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