Four years after Oregon raised its minimum wage, the Wall Street Journal examines conservative claims that it would hurt the economy and finds "none of these fears materialized." Private, nonfarm payrolls and wages are up, and "job growth is strong in industries employing many minimum-wage workers."  Think Progress 110306

 

GAO Director David Walker continues to warm against US financial disaster: “Walker can talk in public about the nation's impending fiscal crisis because he has one of the most secure jobs in Washington. As comptroller general of the United States — basically, the government's chief accountant — he is serving a 15-year term that runs through 2013.

Walker is committed to touring the US through the 2008 elections, “talking to anybody who will listen about the fiscal black hole Washington has dug itself, the "demographic tsunami" that will come when the baby boom generation begins retiring and the recklessness of borrowing money from foreign lenders to pay for the operation of the U.S. government.”  

Their basic message is this: If the US government conducts business as usual over the next few decades, a national debt that is already $8.5 trillion could reach $46 trillion or more, adjusted for inflation. That's almost as much as the total net worth of every person in America, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, and those Google guys included. A hole that big could paralyze the US economy; according to some projections, just the interest payments on a debt that big would be as much as all the taxes the government collects today. And every year that nothing is done about it, Walker says, the problem grows by $2 trillion to $3 trillion.”  http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061029/ap_on_go_ot/america_the_bankrupt

 

New Study Finds America's Rich Getting Richer As Middle-Class Income Stagnates:

University of California-Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez finds in a new study, "The Evolution of Top Incomes," that "over the past 25 years, and especially in the last 10 years, America's very rich have grown much richer. No one else fared as well."

 

Saez and Thomas Piketty of the Centre for Economic Policy Research examined 30 years of tax data and "found that the richest one-tenth of 1% of Americans -- 129,584 households in 2004 -- reported income equal to 9.5% of national pretax income." "However, median, or midpoint, family income rose only 1.6% between 2001 and 2004, when adjusted for inflation, according to the Federal Reserve. Median family real net worth -- a family's gross assets minus liabilities -- rose only 1.5% during those four years. Those are very sluggish income-growth rates compared with the 4 years between 1998 and 2001."

 

One explanation: "The very wealthy simply own more assets than the rest of us. That means they benefit more from the booming stock market, which is reaching record highs." Bush's tax cuts have only increased the income gap. "We've had a 30-year trend of income inequality," said the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities' Jason Furman. "What's new in the last five years is the degree to which tax policy has made that worse, rather than leaned against that trend."  Think Progress 110306

 

Productivity....Via Dean Baker, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the latest quarterly productivity numbers. In Q3, nonfarm business productivity grew....0%.

Now, this is not the first time productivity has leveled out for a quarter. A 16-year chart is here. But 2 things make this slowdown noteworthy. First, it follows weak Q2 productivity growth, which means we've had 6 straight months of poor performance. Second, remember my wonky post yesterday about possible mismeasurement of the increase in auto production? If that turns out to be a genuine error, it means this quarter's productivity growth is overstated. We might have actually seen a drop in productivity.

Kevin Drum @ http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2006_11/009982.php

 

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