As the new 110th Congress gets down to business, a very lame duck president
attempts to co-opt some initiative. The Democrats have all the momentum in
their favor. Focusing on long neglected domestic issues to establish a new
work ethic and remodeling of Congress will build on that.

The president is doomed to the Iraq albatross around his neck, deservedly.
Congressional Republicans will vote with Democrats on many issues. If Bush
joins them, as he has signaled he would on the federal minimum wage, it
could save some of his failed presidency and send a good message to voters
that checks and balances also restores some sanity. If Bush and hardcore
neoCons refuse to adjust to reality, and block issues that voters care about
still playing politics instead of focusing on policy, they will pay for it
again at the ballot box in 2008.

The OpEd that Pres. Bush signed in the WSJ this week, (linked below),
attempted to reclaim the spotlight from the historic changeover in Congress.
Unfortunately, he chose an issue on which his bully pulpit has lost
authority. Such is the path of those who bluff and intimidate but who cannot
adjust and correct when theory does not fit reality. - kwc

NYT Editorial Jan. 06, 2007

A Heckuva Claim: “President Bush wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed
Wednesday that "it is also a fact that our tax cuts have fueled robust
economic growth and record revenues." The claim about fueling record revenue
is flat wrong, and it is shocking that the president should persist in
making such errors. After all, tax cuts are the central plank of his
domestic policy. How can he fail to understand the basic facts about them?

This is not just our opinion. Harvard's N. Gregory Mankiw, an economic
conservative who served as chairman of Mr. Bush's Council of Economic
Advisers, has tested the hypothesis on which Mr. Bush's claim is based: He
looked at the extent to which tax cuts stimulate extra growth and the extent
to which that growth generates extra tax revenue that offsets the initial
loss of revenue from the tax cut. Mr. Mankiw's conclusion: Even over the
long term, once you've allowed all of the extra growth to feed through into
extra revenue, cuts in capital taxes juice the economy enough to recoup half
of the lost revenue, and cuts in income taxes deliver a boost that recoups
17% of the lost revenue. So a $100 billion cut in taxes on capital widens
the budget deficit by $50 billion, and a $100 billion cut in income taxes
widens the budget deficit by $83 billion.

If Mr. Bush does not believe Mr. Mankiw, perhaps he may believe the
Congressional Budget Office. In a period when it was run by Douglas
Holtz-Eakin, another economic conservative who worked in Mr. Bush's White
House, the CBO estimated the extent to which a 10% reduction in personal
taxes might pay for itself. On the most optimistic assumptions it could
muster, the CBO found that tax cuts would stimulate enough economic growth
to replace 22% of lost revenue in the first 5 years and 32% in the second
five. On pessimistic assumptions, the growth effects of tax cuts did nothing
to offset revenue loss.

If Mr. Bush believes neither Mr. Mankiw nor the Congressional Budget Office,
he should at least respect his own Treasury. Prodded by the White House,
Treasury economists have calculated how much extra growth would result from
making the Bush tax cuts permanent. They have concluded that economic output
would rise by about 0.5% in the first 6 years and by an additional 0.2% in
the "long term." Since the federal government collects around 18% of gross
domestic product in taxes, enlarging GDP by 0.7% would result in extra tax
revenue equivalent to 0.13% of GDP. That would offset less than a tenth of
the revenue that would be lost because of the tax cuts.

Mr. Bush's op-ed included nice statements about bipartisan cooperation. But
the Democrats would be more likely to cooperate with the president if he
stopped making things up.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/05/AR2007010501
801.html
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/05/AR200701050
1801.html>

Related
OpEd by G.W. Bush What the Congress Can Do For America: “Let them say of
these next two years: we used our time well.”
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html
<http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html>


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