I may be revealing my longstanding affinity with dinosaurs here, but I 
remember that a very long time ago I encountered the Quantity Theory of 
Money in Economics 101. The basic formula for the theory is MV=PT, where M 
is the quantity of money in circulation, V is its rate of circulation, P is 
the average price of all transactions, and T is the volume of transactions 
occurring during one period (all according to the very ancient macroeconomic 
textbook I still have on my shelves).

What may have happened since ancient times(and here I'm speculating), say 
fifty years ago, is that the nature of some of the variables may have 
changed quite radically (or at least very considerably). A long time ago, T 
would have consisted largely of goods and some services. Nowadays, it would 
still consist of goods, but the services part has increased hugely over 
previous volumes. And by services, I don't only mean seeing a lawyer or a 
doctor. I mean a very large increase in the kinds of paper people are 
trading and selling to each other, stocks, bonds, funds of various kinds, 
derivatives, etc. Instead of consisting mostly of the ploddy things you buy 
at the store, T has become a rapidly spinning maelstrom of investment 
certificates and because T is spinning rapidly, so is V. M and P need not 
necessarily increase, but of course they have too. M consists of something 
you can put in your pocket, like coins or paper, and credit. What seems to 
have happened over the last few decades is that the credit part of it has 
increased greatly via instruments such as credit cards, mortgages and other 
methods of borrowing. With increases in M, V and T have come increases in 
P. What has probably not kept pace is something we might call W, wages or 
personal incomes, a matter which, if true, could pose some pretty big 
problems for people that are fulfilling their dreams on credit.

There, I've said it as plainly as I can, perhaps having revealed that I'm 
nothing more than a dinosaur.


Ed


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