(whether one believes in anthropogenic warming or not)
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2009/1217/1224260833095.html
The Irish Times - Thursday, December 17, 2009
Six reasons why Earth won't cope for long
AS WORLD leaders arrive in Copenhagen for the crunch phase of the
climate conference, the focus turns to what kind of deal is likely to
emerge. Pre-eminent climate scientist Prof James Hansen of the Nasa
Goddard Institute has already given the entire process the kiss of
death. Any political deal cobbled together is, he believes, likely to be
so profoundly flawed as to lock humanity on to “a disaster track”,
writes *JOHN GIBBONS*
Hansen voiced publicly what environmental scientists and campaigners
have murmured all year. A political fudge that ducks science is the
likeliest outcome at Copenhagen. Earlier this week, for instance, EU
fisheries ministers agreed a deal that pleased our Government and our
fishermen. However, it does little to arrest the progressive
annihilation of a common resource that, like our atmosphere, is owned by
no one – and so exploited by all.
The world faces a dangerous convergence of environmental and resource
crises, not all directly climate related. All, however, are increasingly
difficult to resolve in a rapidly warming world. Taken together, they
are not amenable to a business-as-usual political response. Here, in no
particular order, are six:
1. Biodiversity: “The world is currently undergoing a very rapid loss of
biodiversity comparable with the great mass extinction events that have
previously occurred only five or six times in the Earth’s history,” says
the World Wildlife Fund. It has tracked an astonishing 30 per cent
decline in the Earth’s biodiversity between 1970-2003. Hunting, habitat
destruction, deforestation, pollution and the spread of agriculture are
leading to as many as 1,000 entire species going extinct every week –
that’s a species every 10 minutes. The economic cost of destroying
biodiversity is also immense. A 2008 EU study estimated the cost of
forest loss alone is running at $2-$5 trillion (€1.3-€3.4 trillion)
annually.
2. Ocean acidification: The evidence of the effects of increased CO2
levels on the world’s oceans is unequivocal. Surface ocean acidity has
increased by 30 per cent since 1800, with half this increase occurring
in just the last three decades. The rate of change in oceanic pH levels
is around 100 times faster than any observed natural rate. Increasing
acidity is impeding the ability of plankton called foraminifera to
produce shells. These creatures form the base of the entire marine food
system. The world’s vital reef systems are also in peril from acidification.
3. Population pressure: Broadcaster Sir David Attenborough has witnessed
how the natural world is being crushed by humanity. “I’ve never seen a
problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder –
and ultimately impossible – with more,” he says. The Earth must provide
for around 80 million more people than this time last year. It took us
almost 10,000 years to reach a billion people. We now add that many
every 12 years.
4. Peak oil: This month, the International Energy Agency formally
predicted global peak oil by 2020. Today, the world burns the equivalent
of 82 million barrels of oil every day. Projected growth in energy
demand will see this rise to almost 100 million barrels within a decade,
but by then, output from the oilfields currently in production will have
plummeted to barely a third of that. A massive energy gap is looming,
and with discoveries having peaked in the mid-1960s, we are approaching
the bottom of the cheap oil barrel. Non-conventional oil, renewables and
nuclear will be nowhere near capable of bridging this energy gap in
time. The oil shocks of the coming decade will be intense.
5. Peak food: the global food system is predicated on lashings of cheap
oil, fresh water, soil and natural gas. All four are in decline. The
food riots of 2008 were an early warning of a global system in crisis.
In the US, it is estimated every calorie of food energy requires 10
calories of fossil fuel energy. More food production is now being
channelled into fattening animals. Meat is a tasty but entirely
inefficient way to use finite food resources. Meanwhile, the UN predicts
the collapse of all global commercial marine fisheries by 2048,
depriving up to two billion people of food.
6. Peak water: During the 20th century, human water usage increased
nine-fold, with irrigation (for agriculture) alone using two-thirds of
this total. With almost all major glaciers retreating, many river
systems are at risk. Groundwater in aquifers is another key fresh water
source. Over-extraction, mostly for agriculture, has caused their levels
worldwide to plummet. Pollution, especially from fertiliser overuse,
adds to the loss of fresh water. The Environmental Protection Agency
yesterday reported only 17 per cent of Ireland’s rivers are of “high
ecological status”.
The 19th century naturalist John Muir famously wrote that “when one tugs
at a single thing in nature, he finds it attached to the rest of the
world”. As the Copenhagen conference draws to a close, the words of a
contemporary of Muir, politician and orator Robert Ingersoll, have never
seemed more apt: “In nature there are neither rewards nor punishments;
there are only consequences.”
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John Gibbons blogs at www.thinkorswim.ie
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