Very good article in the NYT (28 Jan) by Catherine Rampell with two charts
based on US Bureau of Labour figures. Much the same will apply to the UK
and Western Europe. I've been attempting to simplify two charts she shows
there, one of them quite difficult to interpret at first sight. The
following is how I read them (with retrospective extrapolation from my
memory of the 1960s period).
In the 1950s and '60s up to about 10% or the working population were made
redundant or on layoffs during downturns but were mostly taken up again
during the next upturn, together with all young school leavers seeking
work. From about 1965 to 1980 about 15% were made redundant or on layoffs
during downturns, though not all these were registered as unemployed. In
the economic upturns, almost all young people were able to get jobs
together with about two-thirds of the unemployed, leaving a 'missing'
residue of about 5%.. From about 1980 to 1995 about 30% were made redundant
or laid off during downturns, less than half were taken up during upturns,
leaving a 'missing' residue of about 15% of which about a third were young
people who'd never been to work.
If we extrapolate these trends then, when the current unemployment reaches
a peak -- in a couple of years? -- we can expect about 45% unemployed or
laid off altogether and when the US pulls out of recession -- assuming
there are no more shocks due to galloping inflation or whatever -- only
about a third will be re-employed and there'll be a 'missing' residue, or
underclass, of about 25% of which more than half will be young people.
In times past this situation would be a recipe for a class revolution, such
as we in the UK came close to in the General Strike of 1926. Could this
happen in some of the 'advanced' countries in the coming years? It didn't
come off in the UK because the middle class was already too strong. It's
highly likely that there'll be revolutions in Greece and perhaps Spain,
Italy and even France or Ireland in the coming years but I can't see it
happening in the US, Canada, the UK, Germany and the Scandinavian countries
because the middle class is already larger and stronger than in the 1920s
and 30s.
Keith Hudson
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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