On Fri, 14 May 2010, michael gurstein <[email protected]> wrote: > Yes, I guess what I'm trying to point out is that a lot of the steady > state argument is very very Western/middle class biased and doesn't > hold that much water beyond SoCal and Aspen...which to my mind is very > dangerous since it means that the folks who have been (self) tasked > with thinking the big thoughts are in fact thinking their thoughts > only in cartoon bubbles... > > M > > > -----Original Message----- > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Arthur > Cordell > Sent: Friday, May 14, 2010 2:30 PM > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Many of the jobs lost duringthe recessionare > not coming back > > > Wish I had a better scenario. If we go to a steady state we will need > real global leadership. And it might just be that slowing down the > gerbil wheel a bit might lead to a better outcome for all. We just > don't know. What we are coming to realize is that speeding up the > gerbil wheel is not likely to bring the outcomes promised or wished > for. Think resource scarcities of all types. Think continuing > destruction of local cultures, languages, etc. It's time to look at > alternative paths. > > > This too is the "real" world. > > > Arthur
I suggest that we will be getting a "steady state" or probably more accurately declining state world soon enough whether anyone likes it or not. Oil production has certainly peaked, barring absurd and ill advised heroic efforts, and the knock on effects will mean all economic activity must start to constrict very soon. Prices will rise as the advancing societies of the developing world try to buy in to the remaining energy supplies for their nascent mobile infrastructures - China may have the sobering experience of an automobile culture which rises, flourishes, and is strangled, all within ten years. We will all be learning in this decade how cheap food was dependent on cheap oil for both machinery and fertilizer. Universal austerity will be visited upon us for our past sins of profligacy. It is probable that the current level of affluence will not be seen again for perhaps two centuries, in a very different world. The best we can hope for is that the slide will be ridden with dignity, grace, tolerance and cooperation. Not an unreasonable expectation, as this situation will be an opportunity for people to bring forward all their best qualities to meet the challenges ahead. -Pete _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
