On Tue, Sep 14, 2010 at 5:42 AM, Sally Lerner <[email protected]> wrote: > FWers - Can we discuss feasible long-term strategies to address this > fundamental 'new' reality' which, as Keith points out, FW has been > talking about for years)? Sally
Even the IMF is dipping its toe in the dreaded Kurzarbeit waters. Buried in paragraph 8 of an op-ed signed by the heads of the IMF and the ILO is this reference to : "...policies allowing firms to retain workers, while reducing their hours and wages—thus spreading the burden of the downturn more evenly." http://www.imf.org/external/np/vc/2010/091310.htm The OECD, in its 2010 Employment Outlook report gave a positive evaluation of Kurzarbeit programs and now Andy Stern, former president of the SEIU, has endorsed Dean Baker's proposal of tax incentives to fund work sharing. Meanwhile, Juliet Schor envisions work-sharing as an "exit ramp to a new economy": http://www.julietschor.org/2010/08/exit-ramp-to-sustainability/ "Work-share programs are probably the best way to respond to a short-term reduction in economic activity. But they also form a key pathway to a saner economy. "Reducing work hours improves work-life balance for many overworked, overstressed employees. Americans frequently report that what they most sense to be missing from their lives is the time necessary to enjoy them; research on well-being also indicates that adequate time is at the core of a healthy, happy life. Overworked employees report more family tension, less happiness, and more stress. This is a particular problem for Americans, who work between 100 and 350 more hours each year than workers in comparably wealthy countries. "Surveys done before the crash indicate that between 30 and 50% of Americans say they would prefer to work fewer hours, even for less pay. However, the structure of the labor market—including the need to work full-time to receive benefits—has made that difficult. That’s why taking advantage of SWT now, at a time when hours have fallen due to the shortfall in demand, is a golden opportunity. "Reduced hours can also lead to smaller ecological footprints, as I explain in my recent book Plenitude. Productivity has been on the rise for decades, but we’ve been using the benefits of increased productivity to consume ever more stuff—which we often don’t even have time to enjoy. Those additional material goods (not to mention those extra miles of commuting[IS1] ) have a major impact on the environment. Research shows that longer work hours are associated with more ecological degradation. Working less typically leads to reduced spending and also a shift to lower-impact forms of consumption: taking the bike instead of the car, or cooking at home instead of buying fast food[BJ2] . For the ecologically aware, the preference for SWT over standard job creation measures such as stimulus spending or tax cuts should be clear. "By helping to institute a new, shorter hours regime, in which increases in productivity result in time off the job rather than more material output, work-sharing programs help maintain labor market balance even if economic activity is stable or falling. That’s the win-win that has yet to factor into the mainstream discourse on shorter work hours—and the reason why reducing hours equitably in a recession is an exit ramp to a new economy." > ________________________________________ > From: [email protected] > [[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson > [[email protected]] > Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2010 3:20 AM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION > Subject: [Futurework] Social explosion ahead > > The powers-that-be are now saying what we've been saying on FW for years. > > Keith > > IMF fears 'social explosion' from world jobs crisis > > > America and Europe face the worst jobs crisis since the 1930s and risk "an > explosion of social unrest" unless they tread carefully, the International > Monetary Fund has warned. > Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, > Daily Telegraph 14 September > > "The labour market is in dire straits. The Great Recession has left behind a > waste land of unemployment," said Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF's chief, at > an Oslo jobs summit with the International Labour Federation (ILO). > > He said a double-dip recession remains unlikely but stressed that the world > has not yet escaped a deeper social crisis. He called it a grave error to > think the West was safe again after teetering so close to the abyss last > year. "We are not safe," he said. > > A joint IMF-ILO report said 30m jobs had been lost since the crisis, three > quarters in richer economies. Global unemployment has reached 210m. "The > Great Recession has left gaping wounds. High and long-lasting unemployment > represents a risk to the stability of existing democracies," it said. > > The study cited evidence that victims of recession in their early twenties > suffer lifetime damage and lose faith in public institutions. A new twist is > an apparent decline in the "employment intensity of growth" as rebounding > output requires fewer extra workers. As such, it may be hard to re-absorb > those laid off even if recovery gathers pace. The world must create 45m jobs > a year for the next decade just to tread water. > > Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist, said the percentage of workers > laid off for long stints has been rising with each downturn for decades but > the figures have surged this time. > > "Long-term unemployment is alarmingly high: in the US, half the unemployed > have been out of work for over six months, something we have not seen since > the Great Depression," he said. > > Spain has seen the biggest shock, with unemployment near 20pc. Britain's rate > has risen from 5.3pc to 7.8pc over the last two years, a slightly better > record than the OECD average. This contrasts with the 1970s and early 1980s > when Britain was notoriously worse. UK jobless today totals 2.48m. > > Mr Blanchard called for extra monetary stimulus as the first line of defence > if "downside risks to growth materialise", but said authorities should not > rule out another fiscal boost, despite debt worries. "If fiscal stimulus > helps avoid structural unemployment, it may actually pay for itself," he said. > > "Most advanced countries should not tighten fiscal policies before 2011: > tightening sooner could undermine recovery," said the report, rebuking > Britain's Coalition, Germany's austerity hawks, and US Republicans. Under > French socialist Strauss-Kahn, the IMF has assumed a Keynesian flavour. > > The report skirts the contentious issue of whether globalisation lets > companies engage in "labour arbitrage", locating plant in low-wage economies > such as China to ship products back to the West. Nor does it grapple with the > trade distortions caused by China's currency policy, except to call on > "surplus countries" to play their part in rebalancing. > > The IMF said there may be a link between rising inequality within Western > economies and deflating demand. > > Historians say the last time that the wealth gap reached such skewed extremes > was in 1928-1929. Some argue that wealth concentration may cause investment > to outstrip demand, leading to over-capacity. This can trap the world in a > slump. > > > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > -- Sandwichman _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
