All, I had waited with hopes to update my blog, but that's probably a while in coming yet. So I'm responding prematurely to Sally's call re the social explosion as related to the intelligence of global communications networks thread from a while ago. The IMF-ILO report and news may be good news, and it seems to strengthen my points below.
First, my answer to Keith's question (Keiths Q: "I'm fascinated to ponder whether the smart phone is going to have any sort of catalytic effect on this growing sub-population with time on their hands.") would be 'yes', in terms of the role of smart phones in ICT infrastructure . Internet and Communications Technologies (ICTs) are creating a profound effect on global society. I use this video to describe where we might be headed. But before you click on that, read below. As the communications and energy revolutions merge, there's a fundamental shift occurring around the planet. As data, information and knowledge ripple through the Internet, wisdom and physical actions are being generated as a global conscious awareness. Yes, there remain enormous power struggles between those trying to maintain the status quo and those driving this transformation. There are many actors crossing both of these boundaries too, such as Google, simultaneously seeking to hold onto antiquated business models incorporating growth and profit with privacy, yet pushing the boundaries in terms of connecting global actors. Many ENGOs too are pushing for 'green' growth, somewhat of an oxymoron. Barring some cataclysmic event (and the environmental crises come first to mind), change in inevitable (well, change is always inevitable, but change in the right direction at the right time is more desirable). [ok, click] While some, such as Rifkin, posit this transformation as a Third Industrial Revolution driving economic growth and prosperity (which, given the players largely involved in the design of communications and energy infrastructures, seems plausible in the short term), I believe it can also evolve a sustainable (socially and ecologically) society. [Rifkins Third Industrial Revolution would be change in the wrong direction at this time.] Both the Rifkinites and myself believe that this transition will return humans to our cooperative, egalitarian, sharing societies not seen since the pre-agricultural period. My analyses, however, suggests Rifkin is missing some crucial elements to his argument, despite having convinced the EU of the economic growth potential of these transformations. Egalitarianism and cooperation are key to those crucial missing elements. These suggest a new global social transformation is emerging through the confluence of ICTs and renewable technologies; a new social reality in which income will replace work. If one carries this thought to the limit, income too might even be dislodged (which requires a deeper analysis of the role of money in society which I provide in chapter 8 of the book). If these theories are correct, the entire concepts of work and income will ultimately be transformed, and I suspect we are now witnessing these changes occur across many sectors, despite many viewing them as disconnected events. I argue this in my book, although I now realise that analysis is far from complete. I've been trying to incorporate some of these thoughts in my blog, but alas, there is only so much time to go around. As that time is re-allocated, I hope to add posts to the blog, and revise and make public more of the posts I've already drafted. Oh yeah, and another book. Extra monetary stimulus, as suggested by the IMF-ILO report to resolve this 'social explosion' would be as inept as additional top-down management and control (as recommended by the 2003 blackout report) will be in managing the emerging smart grid. For gosh sakes, additional debt and economic growth are absurd ways to eliminate debt and degrow a global economy! Robert --- On Mon, 8/16/10, Michael Gurstein <[email protected]> wrote: From: Michael Gurstein <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [Futurework] FW: People questioning the intelligence of the global communication network To: "'Keith Hudson'" <[email protected]>, "'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'" <[email protected]> Received: Monday, August 16, 2010, 3:03 PM Message Interesting question.. Although I follow this stuff quite closely I have no special insight... One straw in the wind is a recent study in Germany that indicates that young people (so called "digital natives") have no greater knowledge of how to use the Net than anyone else... My gut answer to Keith's question is no--the most significant impact on that generation may be that using smartphones acts as a time sink and draws away from other things like watching t.v. while perhaps increasing the speed at which "information" (gossip) circulates to no particularly useful/usable end. But I'm at least two and probably more like four generations removed from the folks you are asking about. M -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Monday, August 16, 2010 11:16 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] FW: People questioning the intelligence of the global communication network At 09:11 16/08/2010 -0700, Michael Gurstein wrote: From another list... (albeit of deep techno-enthusiasts... M -----Original Message----- Sent: Monday, August 16, 2010 7:53 AM Subject: Re: People questioning the intelligence of the global communication network The Smartphone part of this article that really interests me. There can never have been such a rapid take-up of a consumer good as the smartphone by the young. At the same time there are very clear signs (at least in the UK so far) that structural unemployment is steadily growing among the young. Until the last couple of years, this was largely confined to the school drop-outs and the NEETs (Not in Education, Employment or Training) but last year, and this year, there'll be many thousands of graduates joining them (particularly as many retired people are now returning to the job market). I'm fascinated to ponder whether the smart phone is going to have any sort of catalytic effect on this growing sub-population with time on their hands. I'm not so much thinking about the ability to raise mass demonstrations in the streets nor any sort of concerted anger, but of the tremendous potential for the dissemination of new ideas and the formation of specialized groups. I'm thinking of new forms of sustainable life styles and quite new forms of business -- new sorts of monastic orders (though without celibacy presumably). Keith Thanks, , I'd like to reiterate a point I made earlier on the list and make a small update to the list in regards to smartphones. The point was, roughly, that should a global brain or accelerating artificial intelligence be clearly visible and provable, or most dramatically able to communicate with us, the stage is set for religious feelings, the formation of churches, and other very significant worship behavior of the new life form(s). Notably, the original article by Jaron Lanier is titled the First Church of Robotics and the discussion you highlighted below revolves around proving Global Brain ideas. Lanier is a vocal critic of these ideas and I disagree with the attention he receives as a kind of new-world dreadlocked mystic of technology. In this article, he writes (in regards to the behavior of reposting content on Twitter): " That is, people perform machine-like activity, copying and relaying information; the Internet, as a whole, is claimed to perform the creative thinking, the problem solving, the connection making. This is a devaluation of human thought." Basically, Lanier is a hardcore humanist who is in love with technology. No matter that millions of humans around the world discover fascinating things as a result of following other human activity on Twitter, largely from reposting behavior. According to Lanier, Twitter is not intelligent and the internet is soulless and possibly evil. I have to say, it kind of creeps me out to hear someone stating that we should " keep our religious ideas out of (the work of scientists and engineers)" and at the same time profess a deep unshakable belief in the human soul, obviously a thing never to be surpassed or obtained by a machine. What this article is about is the two sides that are apparent in Global Brain and AI research today. One side believes that only humans can have souls and computers can never be truly aware; the other believes that it's not clear if souls exist or have a specific humanistic definition and that perhaps intelligence/awareness is bigger than humans. Or you could say those who believe that intelligence requires soul and those who don't. Nonetheless, should a "new mind" awaken in some measurable form, look out! Will Lanier and his anthropocentric ilk call for it's summary execution as an abomination and try to pull the plug? Will Kuzweil and his followers raise it on high and try to plug in? UPDATE ON SMARTPHONES: The smartphone explosion is significant. "On the ground" as a consultant, I have helped many fellow citizens upgrade from small form factor devices and less touchscreen-oriented machines like Blackberries into the rapidly expanding world of Androids and iPhones. People who obtain these new smartphones immediately wonder, "what do I do with it now?" and start searching for applications and asking me what applications they should be installing. And, I believe, a new kind of emotional connection is born. Very recently, there has been quite a passionate drama played out in the world of smartphone owners. People are realizing they can "jailbreak" their iPhones and emerge from the Jobsian cleanroom to enter the free world of the internet and install whatever they want. People are realizing that some new Android phones (already a lot more liberated in regards to applications) come with a special chip that prevents complete "root" control of their device, but within two weeks of it's entrance into the world, a very real digital hero emerged on forums and blogs who had conquered the chip and granted Power to the People to be who they want to be - and the primary force driving root control was the ability to turn the Android device into an open WiFi hotspot, which the mobile network providers want to stop. These are no longer phones, they are extension of ourselves, our desires, our "souls" if you will. Lanier fears " we think of people more and more as computers, just as we think of computers as people." I believe our new small computer smartphone technologies are more than trusted friends or separate simulacrums, they are part of us. Do you believe they are draining or expanding our souls? If you believe in such a thing as a soul... if not, perhaps replace "soul" with "intelligence." _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework Keith Hudson, Saltford, England -----Inline Attachment Follows----- _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
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