Keith,
I fear the 40% is pure guesswork as are most of the official prognostications! If they are lucky, they will claim credit. If they are not, they will express surprise that the measure is higher/lower than their guess. They would never say they are wrong. Harry From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Keith Hudson Sent: Monday, October 04, 2010 12:40 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, , EDUCATION Subject: [Futurework] Tiptoeing? -- I'd say so! "UK tiptoeing towards Japan, warns forecast" is the headlines in today's Daily Telegraph. It continues: "The world's leading developed economies have a 40% chance of falling back into a 'malign' recession, a leading forecaster has warned. Problems in the banking sector and the growing risk of a sovereign debt have raised the prospect of a 'prolonged' era of slow growth or contraction. Fathom Consulting says today in its forecast for UK, US, Europe and Japan." Funny! But not funny. I've read this sort of forecast several times in the past year by all sorts of economists, forecasters and think-tanks. Interestingly, they nearly always say "40%", sometimes even "50%" when they're very daring. I'll buy a bottle of whisky to the first forecaster I read in the press who tiptoes to "51%", or more. Keith Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
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