Bernanke, Krugman and a host of other stock economists ought to realize by
now that there's a fundamental structural problem here. The monetary
situation, bad though it is, is almost a separate issue. Whether we have
inflation or deflation in the short term. a permanent economic
stabilization is being forced on the advanced countries from the bottom up.
Even the 1.5% or 2% of GDP growth (whatever that might mean precisely) is
only due to those in the upper half of the population who happen to be in
primary value-adding occupations. But even that will fade away in the
coming generation. Once a country loses a distinct edge in at least a few
consumer and producer products -- sufficiently ahead of the copying
countries -- then it's finished as a prosperous nation.
Some sort of communitarian system will have to grow out of all this even if
it starts at shanty-town level. However, there's a big difference between
shanty-town ex-industrial society and shanty-town ex-agriculture as we
presently see in so many large cities. The next post-industrial technology
is almost certainly going to be biological and this is far more
intellectually-intensive and much less capital-intensive than the pottery
kilns and blast furnaces of 200 years ago. As Freeman Dyson observed some
years ago, advanced DNA research and development could well be a garage- or
kitchen-based experience. (For example, DNA sequencers that were the size
of . . . well, kitchens . . . are already no larger than washing machines.)
All this might take a generation of joblessness among young people before
the really bright ones become known to one another and start co-ordinating.
But once they do, then the Internet is available for all the data they will
ever need. But even before all this happens a communitarian culture could
live a better life at vastly cheaper osts than many unemployed have to live
now. If all this seems unlikely it's no more so than what could have been
contemplated, say 10 years ago, of today's scene of millions of people with
little hope of ever being employed again.
Keith
At 08:49 20/12/2010 -0500, you wrote:
Marx must be smiling down at all this&..this is the reserve army of the
temps ready to enter employment should any full timers start making demands.
arthur
================================
December 19, 2010 NY Times
Weighing Costs, Companies Favor Temporary Help
By
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/r/motoko_rich/index.html?inline=nyt-per>MOTOKO
RICH
Temporary workers are starting to look, well, not so temporary.
Despite a surge this year in short-term hiring, many American businesses
are still skittish about making those jobs permanent, raising concerns
among workers and some labor experts that temporary employees will become
a larger, more entrenched part of the work force.
This is bad news for the nations workers, who are already facing one of
the bleakest labor markets in recent history. Temporary employees
generally receive fewer benefits or none at all, and have virtually no job
security. It is harder for them to save. And it is much more difficult for
them to develop a career arc while hopping from boss to boss.
Were in a period where uncertainty seems to be going on forever,said David
Autor, an economist at the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/m/massachusetts_institute_of_technology/index.html?inline=nyt-org>Massachusetts
Institute of Technology. So this period of temporary employment seems to
be going on forever.
This year, companies have hired temporary workers in significant numbers.
In November, they accounted for
<http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf>80 percent of the 50,000
jobs added by private sector employers, according to the Labor Department.
Since the beginning of the year, employers have added a net 307,000
temporary workers, more than a quarter of the 1.17 million private sector
jobs added in total.
One worker who has been forced to accept temporary jobs is Jeffrey Rodeo,
43, who was laid off 14 months ago from his job as an accounting manager
at a produce company in Sacramento. He has applied for nearly 700
full-time positions since then, but has yet to receive an offer.
Meanwhile, to stay afloat and keep his skills fresh, he has worked on
short-term stints at four different employers.
Mr. Rodeo figures his peripatetic work life will last at least another
year. Companies are being more careful,he said. It just may take longer to
secure a permanent position.
To the more than 15 million people who are still out of work, those with
temporary jobs are lucky. With concerns mounting that the long-term
unemployed are
<http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/03/business/economy/03unemployed.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=RAMPELL%20AND%20TELEVISION%20PRODUCER&st=cse>becoming
increasingly unemployable, those in temporary jobs are at least
maintaining ties to the working world.
The competition for them can often be as fierce as for permanent openings,
and there are still far too few of them to go around. Indeed, the relative
strength in temporary hiring has done little to dent the stubbornly high
unemployment rate, which rose to 9.8 percent in November.
With business confidence, particularly in the small business sector,
extremely low,said Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at the
High Frequency Economics research firm, its not surprising that permanent
hiring is lagging behind.
The landscape two or three years from now might look quite different, of
course. Many economists and executives at temporary agencies say there are
signs that more robust permanent hiring is coming in the new year.
Business confidence is up, and temporary agencies report that the
percentage of interim workers who have been offered full-time jobs is also
up from last year.
Nevertheless, there are signs that this time around, the economy could be
moving toward a higher reliance on temporary workers over the long term.
This year, 26.2 percent of all jobs added by private sector employers were
temporary positions. In the comparable period after the
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/r/recession_and_depression/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier>recession
of the early 1990s, only 10.9 percent of the private sector jobs added
were temporary, and after the downturn earlier this decade, just 7.1
percent were temporary.
Temporary employees still make up a small fraction of total employees, but
that segment has been rising steeply over the past year. It hints at a
structural change,said Allen L. Sinai, chief global economist at the
consulting firm Decision Economics. Temp workers are becoming an ever more
important part of what is going on,he said.
Several factors could be contributing to the trend. Many businesses now
tend to organize around short- to medium-term projects that can be doled
out to temporary or contract workers.
Donald Lane, chief executive of Makino, a manufacturer of machine tools
near Cincinnati, said his company would increasingly outsource projects to
contract firms that pull together temporary teams. When installing a large
machine, for example, Mr. Lane said the company could appoint one
full-time supervisor to oversee a number of less skilled short-term workers.
Mr. Lane said he hoped to raise Makinos share of temporary employees from
10 to 15 percent now to about 25 percent in the future.
Flexibility is another factor. Corporate executives, stung by the depth of
the recent downturn, are looking to make it easier to hire and fire
workers. And with the cost of health and retirement benefits running high,
many companies are looking to reduce that burden. In some cases, companies
wrongly classify regular employees as temporary or contract workers in
order to save on benefit costs and taxes.
Certainly, Americans who have never held anything but a full-time job have
sought out temporary posts because they were the only jobs available. And
even before the recession, workers were learning that lifelong employment
was disappearing along with phone booths and Filofax organizers.
But people still tend to prefer jobs with some sense of permanence, and
with full health benefits and some form of retirement contribution.
According to a survey by Staffing Industry Analysts, a Mountain View,
Calif., research firm, 68 percent of all temporary workers are seeking
permanent employment.
But the whole notion of what constitutes a permanent job may simply be
changing. Workers need to expect that their lives and jobs will change
much more often than they have in the past,said Jonas Prising, president
of the Americas at
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/companies/manpower-inc/index.html?inline=nyt-org>Manpower.
Some people have discovered they prefer the freelance life. Antonia Musto
lost her job as a staff accountant for a newspaper in Wilkes Barre, Pa.,
more than two years ago. She signed on with oDesk, a company that matches
contract workers with employers online.
She has since worked for several different businesses and even turned down
a full-time offer last November. I just think Ive gotten very accustomed
to working very fast and working with many different people,Ms. Musto, 38,
said. She said she had fully replaced the income she was making at the
newspaper and buys private health insurance.
Of course, businesses that can now hire talented workers for temporary
jobs may find that when demand picks up, they will need to offer full-time
positions with perks and benefits. But it could take a long time to reach
that point.
That indefinite stretch worries workers who fear that future employers
will look askance at a résumé filled with short-term engagements. Others
worry that they will lose valuable years of saving for the future.
Mr. Rodeo, the Sacramento accounting manager, said he made anywhere from
10 to 50 percent less while working in temporary jobs than he did at the
produce company. He has also been without health insurance all year. None
of the interim employers or temporary agencies have contributed to a
<http://topics.nytimes.com/your-money/retirement/401ks-and-similar-plans/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier>401(k)
plan, nor has he been able to save much on his own.
Thats the scariest part,said Mr. Rodeo.
He is confident he will eventually land a permanent post, but until then,
he knows he is losing ground in planning for retirement. Of course, for my
generation, you cant plan on
<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/s/social_security_us/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier>Social
Security,he said. Most likely, I will have to work longer.
Others are starting to face the prospect that they could move among
temporary assignments for the rest of their careers.
Jose Marin, 50, known as J. D., lost his technology job in Miami in
February and moved to North Carolina to live with his sister. After months
of looking for a permanent job, he signed on with Modis, a unit of Adecco,
and in August began a temporary assignment for a financial services
company in Cary, a town west of Raleigh.
While grateful for the job, he longs for a permanent position. Im still
old-fashioned and I still want to work for a company where I make a
difference and Im going to be there to retire,said Mr. Marin. I know thats
wishful thinking.
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Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
<http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/>http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/
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