The reason why all the alternative energy technologies so far proposed can
never become long-term replacements for fossil fuels is very simple. They
can all produce electricity well enough, but the equipment that's needed --
wind turbines or nuclear power stations, for example -- can only be built
if much cheaper energy is used.
At present, this is derived from the burning of fossil fuels, either
directly or via orthodox electricity generating stations. If manufacturers
of alternative technologies were to exclusive use the electricity they
themselves are able to make then the cost of making the materials for their
equipment -- concrete, steel and plastics, for example -- would be anything
between 20 and 50 times the present cost. And this prohibitive cost will
still be the same, relatively, whatever the price of fossil fuels becomes
in later decades and centuries.
The manufacturers of alternative technologies know this. They employ
scientists who are well-versed in thermodynamics. But so long as they can
convince the more credulous wing of environmentalists and the public and,
in turn, convince governments that they (or their customers for
electricity) need massive subsidies in the short term, then they are
laughing all the way to the bank. Thus nuclear power stations cannot be
built (or insured) by corporations unless government supplies a large
proportion of the capital cost (and insurance premiums). Wind turbines
can't be used unless governments subsidize the electricity utilities for
the proportion of the electricity coming from the wind.
And, of course, government politicians (and their top civil servants) also
know this. But so long as they can disguise the subsidies in one way or
another -- which they do -- then they can convince their electorates that
they are being responsible providers of electricity at cheapest cost.
But if the present alternative technologies (or anything else requiring
expensive mechanical infrastructure) are not the answer, what is? As fossil
fuels decline and become exorbitantly expensive in the coming decades what
can we do? Are there any genuinely long-term energy technologies?
What if there were technologies which not only supplied energy (say, in the
form of hydrogen) but also built their own mechanical equipment cheaply at
the same time? Well, we have those already. They are called plants, algae
and bacteria. Nature has well-nigh perfected these technologies for the
better part of four billion years. From solar energy they all produce
stored energy in the form of carbohydrates -- the energy being easily
released, of course. At the same time they use solar energy to make their
mechanical infrastructure -- proteins, collagen and cellulose. And at the
same time they use built-in "software" procedures (epigenetics) which
instructs, repairs and replenishes its genes from one generation to the
next -- DNA.
If we are not to throw our arms in the air in despair about the long-term
future of our descendents, then we must have faith in those quirky
mutations in our brain genes which enlarged our frontal lobes and made us
scientifically curious. Hundreds, if not thousands, of the best young minds
in the world are now actively seeking that first biologcal machine that
will re-package solar energy much more economically than any alternative
technology so far being tried. Ultimately it will be scalable in order to
replace fossil fuels but only when world population is much smaller than it
is now (a great deal of land presently used for agriculture will be
required). It will also require vast amounts of freshwater now used by
agriculture.
Although research biologists are now very close indeed to that first
practical bacterium which ultimately will give us all the energy we need,
the coming decades are likely to be tumultuous as nations fight over fossil
fuels (hopefully in non-military ways) and as world population (hopefully
voluntarily) shrinks to manageable size.
But we mustn't think that politicians are going to take us there painlessly
by leading us up the "alternative" garden path as they are doing now.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England
<http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/>http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2010/12/
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