I have a friend who is married to a Doctor from Japan. She is the 32nd generation of doctors in her family. That could be in the 600 year time frame or if later siblings could double that. Four generations in my family began in 1838. It seems they have a different attitude from the West when it comes to these time issues. The development of mastery over generations is something that the Bachs did in Europe and certain acting families do in Western theater but generally long term mastery of a subject is a thought not paid much attention to. Of course even modern science goes back to the Camerata di Bardi in Florence and little Galileo studying theory at his father's knee all made possible by the unbelievable riches coming from the ruined nations of the "new" world. Another kind of Tsunami. The seeds for the blossom of Europe's science, art, culture etc, were planted in 1492. Meanwhile the Chinese were inventing the tempered scale which would make JS Bach's "well tempered clavier" possible and all of the piano concertos of Mozart while the Japanese continued keeping records. It gives one pause and puts things in perspective. Thank you for your excellent comments. They were enlightening.
REH -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of pete Sent: Tuesday, March 15, 2011 12:26 AM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] Before/After Northern Japan On Mon, 14 Mar 2011, Ray Harrell wrote: > Why do you think that the people in America and Canada are so ill prepared? > Or should I ask why the Japanese were more long term in their thinking than > America or Canada seems to be? > > REH A couple of things. Japan is incredibly seismically active compared to north america. People in California are used to occasional small tremors, but in Japan they occur weekly. The first week I was there, a jolt occurred which literally bumped vertically about a half a centimetre. It was accompanied by a loud bang which reverberated through the neighbourhood, sounded like an artillery round. There were no rumbles before or afterward; it was to me extremely bizarre. I expected some acknowledgement of the event, but the locals said nothing in print or television. I had to search through the Japan Meteorological Office website to find any information, and there I discovered the reason for the disregard. I had to churn through dozens of quake records for the week to find the one I had felt, most of which were rated at a much higher Richter number. I eventually found the right one, it was only a 4.2, but it had occurred about 6km directly beneath the village I was in. Browsing the listings, I saw that several quakes that week registered over 6.5, several had generated landslides, and one had caused a death, toppling someone from a building. That little one was just a minor jolt, too small to worry about. It was shrugged off - it was much too small to cause damage, so no point in dwelling on it; they happen all the time. By contrast, if a jolt like that had happened in Vancouver, it would be the top news story, and would be a major topic of conversation for the next week. So, unlike us, the japanese are being constantly reminded of their vulnerability. In addition, they have a history of their country. This week's quake was the largest in 1200 years, that is, they have been keeping written records with size estimates for that long. Europeans have only been on north america's west coast for about 180 years, not long enough to have recorded any really major tsunami events. Of course, the native americans had stories of great quakes, but you know how it is for the europeans - if one of their own didn't write it down, it never happened. The great west coast quake of January 1700 is known because geological dating of tsunami borne sediments was matched to Japanese records of the tsunami devastating their shores. Then they went back and looked at the stories of the northwest indians and said "oh, is that what they were talking about". So, about 25 years ago they started to realize this was a serious issue, and the understanding has been steadily growing, but without the constant reminder provided by regular little tremors, it is hard to gain any traction with the zombie masses that they need to plan for this. Now, there have been many changes brought about by this dawning realization already, mind you. Building codes have been toughened several times, as the certainty of R9 quakes became apparent. And seismic retrofitting is rippling through the community, starting with schools, to make up for the generations of ignorance. The issue is steadily encroaching on people's awareness, gaining with every new report sharpening our understanding of the region's geological history, and with every observation of events elsewhere in the world. The quakes in Sumatra and Chili provided geologists with the opportunity to step up and point out "that's just what's going to happen here". And in the last couple of years, tsunami warning plans have begun to be developed for some towns on the west coast of Vancouver Island, the only place in BC that has experienced a destructive tsunami in the span of european colonization. The obstacle is of course inertia. People have not been in the habit of thinking about "earthquake preparedness", and it takes a lot to get them to realize it's something that needs some serious attention. Those who do think about it, often limit their response to the assembly of an earthquake emergency kit, a little pile of supplies to get you through 3 days without power, food or water. That won't be much use against a 30 foot wall of water. But you can bet that people will be thinking a lot harder after this one. There's nothing like a thousand cell phone videos of nature dealing wholesale death to drive home the reality of one's mortality. -Pete > > > > -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of pete Sent: > Monday, March 14, 2011 5:51 PM To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME > DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] Before/After > Northern Japan > > > One thing that struck me, dredging through the myriad youtube clips* > for any information from the region I was in (just north of the > market at Ourai, where the ship-in-the-whirlpool photo was taken), > was the many clips filmed seemingly perilously close to the > churning water, from high ground, and the view would turn sideways > to show the crowd watching. They were there because it was a high > ground marshalling centre where they ran upon hearing the tsunami > alert sirens, in accordance with their tsunami drill training. > > Obviously the volume of the tsunami was so great that it may likely > have overtopped some marshalling centres, but the population at > least had in place a system that people knew immediately how to > implement, and must have saved many lives. Compare that to BC, > where the probability of a similar event is at least as frequent > as it is there. There is no plan in place whatsoever, and with > the likelihood of a warning period being less than ten minutes, > it would be reasonable to expect the flatland population of > about half a million would be obliterated without a chance. > There is no chance that the few roads to higher ground could > handle a fraction of the traffic. > > I wonder if property values in Richmond and Delta will drop at > all as the implications of the japanese experience sink in. > > I seriously doubt that the locals will undertake the seawall that > is required. I would say your estimate of 40 feet is about right, > and that would have to be about 120 feet wide, and include a > core more substantial than an earth berm. Earthquake and tsunami > proof refuge towers, spaced closely enough that people can reach > and climb them in under 10 minutes might be a cheaper alternative, > but without power for elevators, you better not live in the > region if you're not a fit adult. > > By the way, if you're wondering, I found no information on the > net about JPARC and Tokai, but some email from people there > says for some reason the tsunami did not penetrate the forest > along the shore, so there was no flooding at the institute, and > all the buildings appear sound, though the roads linking them > are all heaved and wrinkled. There are similar breaches in roads > throughout the region, but I received no further information > about the wider region surrounding the lab. The images of Ourai > suggest the tsunami must have travelled up the river immediately > north, between Ourai and the lab, but I haven't been able to > acquire any information on that. > > The staff at the lab were evacuated to a marshalling centre on > the top of a five storey building just inland from the site > immediately upon the quake, and no one reentered any of the > buildings since, while waiting for the aftershocks to subside. > People will be conducting a survey today to find how much damage > has occurred to the structures and their contents. It is likely > that the accelerator will be in a similar situation as the > SLAC accelerator at Stanford after the big quake of '89 - the > submillimetre critical alignment of the components was severely > skewed, and it took a couple of years to repair and realign > before beam could resume. > > -Pete > > *to find the clips, you need to use a cutnpaste with google translate > to convert phrases like tsunami sendai earthquake into japanese > characters, and enter the result into youtube search, then you will > access the japanese local content. Try adding the names for the > provinces and cities affected. > > On Mon, 14 Mar 2011, Arthur Cordell wrote: > > > In addition to building codes there has to be preparedness for after quake > > death and damage. This whole affair might lead to people taking the "big > > one' more seriously. > > > > > > > > People have been denying the problem and possibilities and have built all > > along the coast in improbable places. Maybe new construction will have > to > > be set back some. I don't know but I hope that this event has awakened > > folks from their denial. So maybe the porno-damage 24/7 coverage by the > > networks might just do some good in getting people here to think > seriously. > > > > > > > > arthur > > > > > > > > From: [email protected] > > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Michael > Gurstein > > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 8:23 AM > > To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; > > [email protected] > > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Before/After Northern Japan > > > > > > > > What lesson do you want to draw... Relocate San Fran... Put a 40 foot > > seawall out from Robert's Bank to where... Move the population from the > CA. > > OR, WA coast back to half way up the coastal range... > > > > > > > > The atomic meltdowns are horrific (in prospect) but the greatest > damage/loss > > of life is going to be from the once in 1000 yrs. quake and tsunami and > how > > do you draw lessons from that... > > > > > > > > Seriously... > > > > > > > > M > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [email protected] > > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Arthur Cordell > > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 8:44 AM > > To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION'; > > [email protected] > > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Before/After Northern Japan > > > > I am also in a crabby mood today. The networks have moved from reporting > on > > events to a kind of repetitive showing of damage, death and destruction. > A > > kind of porno-damage. Enough. The nuclear issue will have to be resolved > > but lesson one is don't put a reactor on an earthquake fault. Another > > lesson seems to be that no matter how well prepared a nation is, the force > > of "the big one" and tsunami will be very destructive. Any lessons for > the > > Pacific coasts of Canada and the US? > > > > > > > > arthur > > > > > > > > From: [email protected] > > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Michael > Gurstein > > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 7:17 AM > > To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION'; > > [email protected] > > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Before/After Northern Japan > > > > > > > > I completely agree... I was under the impression that this was in fact on > > Hokaido until I saw this map... > > > > > > > > We aren't talking Alaska here, we are talking New Hampshire or even > Boston! > > (i.e. it's not Moose Factory it's Ottawa!)... > > > > > > > > BTW, the Grauniad is live blogging at > > > http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/14/japan-tsunami-nuclear-alert-live > > -coverage (source for the below... It is increasingly looking like a > > frightful scenario... "Northern" (actually the northern part of central) > > Japan as Chernobyl? > > > > > > > > M > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [email protected] > > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ed Weick > > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 7:50 AM > > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION; > > [email protected] > > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Before/After Northern Japan > > > > I'm in a crabby mood this morning. For several days now I've been seeing > > references to "northern Japan". The scene of the quake was not northern > > Japan, it was northern Honshu. You've got all of the island of Hokaido > > including the city of Sapporo north of that. Nothern Japan indeed! > > > > > > > > Ed > > > > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > > From: "Michael Gurstein" < <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected]> > > > > To: < <mailto:[email protected]> > > [email protected]>; "'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME > > DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION'" < <mailto:[email protected]> > > [email protected]> > > > > Sent: Monday, March 14, 2011 5:58 AM > > > > Subject: [Futurework] Before/After Northern Japan > > > > > > > > > <http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm> > > http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/beforeafter.htm > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > > > Futurework mailing list > > > <mailto:[email protected]> [email protected] > > > <https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework> > > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > > > > > > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
