Ed wrote:
> http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/life-in-the-post-lehman-economy/2011/09/19/
>
> Life in the Post-Lehman Economy
>From the [half of] the article [that Ed omitted]:
In the space of the last 500 years the human population grew
approximately 1000%. If it were a financial chart, you'd look at it
and think, "uh oh...it's a bubble."
Everything is sigmoid. [1]
Oh, well, that's not true but anything that's getting bigger [2] is
going to have to follow the logistic equation. Economists presumably
know this. Indeed, AFAICT, business honchos plan, in so far as
possible, to ride the profits of a new tech, product or scam to some
point where the slope is decreasing and, as it were, step off the
escalator onto the early increasing slope of the next sigmoidal rise
in sales/popularity/profits. That would be around the inflection
point in this image:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dsigmoid.png
Lose desk-top computers, get on to tablets.
Why isn't it obvious a global economy has eliminated (or will, or at
least can) the little local differences that allow for various
exploitation strategies? Now that it's all one big thing, one big
sigmoid applies.
For extra credit: How does the notion of "bubble" differ from the
notion exemplified by the population dynamics described by the
logistic equation? Are they different? Both may lead to collapse, to
chaotic behavior. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_map
which I don't (yet?) understand myself.
[1] See my earlier post, along with Sandwichman's comment.
http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg02243.html
[2] by incorporating more stuff. Something that notionally getting
bigger because its parts are getting further apart, acquiring a
more extensive convex hull without incorporating more stuff,
(would that be like the whole universe?), is another matter.
- Mike
--
Michael Spencer Nova Scotia, Canada .~.
/V\
[email protected] /( )\
http://home.tallships.ca/mspencer/ ^^-^^
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