The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, as described in the bizarre Book
of Revelation, and charging forth on their white, red, black and pale
steeds are commonly supposed to represent Conquest, War, Famine and
Death. A pretty gruesome quartet! To a writer in the Mediterranean
region two thousand years ago, and living under the whip of a
gruesome Roman Empire, those four facts of life were pretty accurate
for those times. However, "Conquest" and "War" are rather too
similar, so let me describe "Conquest" more specifically as conquest
by unfriendly viruses and bacteria. Actually, this revised version --
Disease, War, Famine and Death -- pretty accurately describes the
daily fears of millions of people in the world today.
And, in truth, they're not so very far removed from the fears of
people in advanced countries either! But they're rather too brutal to
face them directly so let me (brutally!) repress them and replace
them with what I think are Four Relevant Horsemen which thoughtful
people, particularly politicians and economists, ought to be dwelling on.
1. The lack of a stable world-wide trading currency. The two existing
predominant trading currencies, the US dollar and the Eurozone euro
are hosted and printed by governments which are technically bankrupt
as well as many, if not most, of their synergistic financial
institutions. To quote Sir Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of
England, two or three days ago: "The world faces a worst financial
disaster than at any time in history."
2. World overpopulation and consequent resource shortages, of which
recyclable freshwater for agriculture has been the first to hit us.
Inevitably this will mean steadily higher food prices for all in the
advanced countries from now onwards (and proportionately more
starvation for many others).
3. The steadily increasing automation of mass consumer goods and
services is causing a growing skills gap between interesting,
well-paid, value-adding jobs and the remainder. The notion of full
employment started dying two or three decades ago has now gone
forever, and real average wages (taking inflation into account) have
been declining pari passu. Long-term unemployment by the middle-aged
has been growing as is, more recently, the beginning of lifetime
unemployment by an increasing number of illiterate and innumerate
young from our dysfunctional state schools.
4. All countries are now proceeding towards a remarkably similar,
highly-dense urban way of life which is characterized by a stabilized
range of consumer goods and services subject only to marginal
improvements. The great "assembly chain" of uniquely new consumer
goods that energized the industrial-consumer revolution of the last
300 years has now become something more like an airport carousel.
A modern Apocalypse? Not necessarily. We'll probably adapt to
whatever the economic and ecological environments impose on us.
Periods of enforced stabilization have happened before in many
previous civilizations. Sooner or later -- with any luck -- we will
have a break-out and a new pattern of daily life will emerge. My own
view is that the break-outs will arise from the huge programme of
research now going on in the genetic (and epigenetic) sciences. I
think they will produce revolutionary developments, particularly in
education and health. If the past history of innovation is any guide
at all, they're likely to come from the young and, usually, from
outside the conventional mainstream of a discipline. We shouldn't
forget the millions of unemployed young people who are now
accumulating in many countries. There are, and will be, many
frustrated geniuses among them. With an increasingly versatile
Internet as their tutor we can reasonably expect huge surprises in
our present conventional political institutions.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/10/
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