QUOTATION OF THE DAY
"If I had a simple answer, I would have been spreading it around the world." <http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/11/business/american-economists-share-nobel- prize.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha3> CHRISTOPHER A. SIMS, a winner of the Nobel in economic science, when asked if his research has led to any conclusion on policies From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Harrell Sent: Tuesday, October 11, 2011 8:15 PM To: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION' Subject: Re: [Futurework] Most Mainstream economists They are just faking it Natalia. They don't know what they are doing and if anyone should listen to them and fail they will just say: "You made that choice to follow my lead, I have no responsibility for you whatsoever." Or as Britney Spears said: "Oops! I've done it again." REH From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of D and N Sent: Tuesday, October 11, 2011 6:01 PM To: Keith Hudson; RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION Subject: Re: [Futurework] Most Mainstream economists Saw this today, shaking my head: Natalia Two Americans win Nobel for economics McClatchy News Service October 11, 2011 Read more: <http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Americans+Nobel+economics/5531107/sto ry.html#ixzz1aVqwZKOF> http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Americans+Nobel+economics/5531107/stor y.html#ixzz1aVqwZKOF Thomas J. Sargent of New York University and Christopher A. Sims of Princeton University were praised for analytic methods that have had a significant influence on economists and policymakers. Their techniques have been used to study the impact of fiscal stimulus programs, such as the controversial Recovery Act of 2009. Their work also has provided the underpinnings of efforts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks to study and manage inflation expectations and monetary policy. But the work of Sargent and other proponents of the "rational expectations" theory also has been criticized as partly responsible for the current financial crisis. Rational expectations is linked to the idea that markets work efficiently, even as Sargent and others have sought to refine the theory by accounting for various uncertainties. In announcing the prize, the last of the Nobel awards this year, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said Monday that the pioneering work of Sims and Sargent in the 1970s and 1980s had helped policymakers understand how shocks and policy shifts affect the economy in both the short and long runs. Sargent and Sims, both 68, conducted their research independently, although they spent the early part of their academic careers together at the University of Minnesota. They will share the $1.5-million prize. Because economics experiments are difficult to perform in the real world, the Nobel committee said, "the laureates' foremost contribution has been to show that causal macroeconomic relationships can indeed be analyzed using historical data, even in cases with twoway relationships." In the past, consumers were often seen as passive players, responding after policies were adopted. But Sargent and Sims integrated people's expectations, creating a more dynamic framework of looking at the economy and where it may be going. For example, if businesses expect interest rates to rise in the future, they are apt to behave differently than if they think otherwise. Sargent's and Sims' work has had particular relevance to monetary policy. Sargent has focused mainly on studying the economic effects of longer-term policy shifts, such as stringent government budgets that are now prevalent in Western nations. A native of Pasadena, Calif., who did his undergraduate work at the University of California, Berkeley, Sargent acknowledged that the models based on his research aren't perfect, saying, "some are quite good, some need improvement." Sargent and Sims both received their doctoral degrees from Harvard in 1968. Sims, who was born in Washington, D.C., said the methods he and Sargent used and developed "are central for finding our way out of this [economic] mess." C Copyright (c) The Victoria Times Colonist Read more: <http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Americans+Nobel+economics/5531107/sto ry.html#ixzz1aVqp4oxG> http://www.timescolonist.com/business/Americans+Nobel+economics/5531107/stor y.html#ixzz1aVqp4oxG http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/10/10/126627/nobel-economics-prize-won-by-tw o.html On 10/11/2011 10:58 AM, Keith Hudson wrote: At 16:20 11/10/2011, REH wrote: >From the article. "Like most mainstream economists, Alpert, Hockett and Roubini roll their eyes at the calls for immediate government deficit reduction, which led to the creation of the supercommittee. Reducing government spending in the short term will only make things worse." Except on this list (KH) Which I suppose means me among one or two others. On the contrary, Prof Thomas Sargent of New York University, whose work has been tried and tested for over 60 years and was given the Nobel Prize for it only a few days ago has said this: "I had [recently] read an Obama administration's Council of Economic Advisers document e-mailed to me by my friend John Taylor. I agreed with John that the CEA calculations were surprisingly naive for 2009. They were not informed by what we learned after 1945. . . .In early 2009, President Obama's economic advisers seem to have understated the substantial professional uncertainty and disagreement about the wisdom of implementing a large fiscal stimulus. In early 2009, I recall President Obama as having said that while there was ample disagreement among economists about the appropriate monetary policy and regulatory responses to the financial crisis, there was widespread agreement in favor of a big fiscal stimulus among the vast majority of informed economists. His advisers surely knew that was not an accurate description of the full range of professional opinion. President Obama should have been told that there are respectable reasons for doubting that fiscal stimulus packages promote prosperity, and that there are serious economic researchers who remain unconvinced." KSH Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/10/ _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
_______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
