Very interesting analysis. Any thoughts on Iceland and how that may
(or may not) set a pattern for other European countries?
Barry
On Nov 4, 2011, at 5:30 AM, Keith Hudson wrote:
I can see no hope for Greece now. Even if Mr Papandreou manages to
form a Coalition government later today and get a vote of
confidence, I cannot see how the majority of Greek people are going
to accept many more years of even more austerity than they have
already suffered.
It's no use saying that the Eurozone has been pampering them for
many years and they must now buckle down and get used to reality.
When it comes to human emotions, there are no absolutes. It's all
relativity. As Krushchev once said when he'd retired from being the
President of Russia: "It's easy to govern starving peasants. But
once they have food in their bellies then it's another matter." Two
years ago, most Greeks had already gained as high a standard of life
as most Germans, French, Italians, etc. It's already declined, and
even this part-way step has produced a country that's barely
governable.
Any more attempts at austerity, then daily riots and national
strikes every few weeks will produce a revolutionary situation. Or,
rather, not so much revolutionary (because there is no conceivable
alternative in sight) but total breakdown. At an intuitive level
that ordinary Greeks probably understand, even though they can't
articulate, they know they face a choice of more austerity for at
least 10 years in the Eurozone or yet even more austerity for a only
a couple of years or so if it, like Argentina in 2000, it decides
to default. In the latter case, it could leave the Eurozone, restore
the drachma, and regain the self-respect and cultural independence
which the bureaucrats of Brussels took away from them years ago.
I can see no other immediate future for Greece, even if it has to
have a draconian government -- maybe even with military backing --
for a few years. China will help. It is already building massive
port facilities at Piraeus and won't want to see these held up.
Furthermore, Greece could immediately start offering wonderful
holidays to tens of millions of the Chinese middle-class whom the
Chinese government is already encouraging to spend more. In four or
five years' time, if not before then, the average Greek will be
scratching his head in wonder that his country ever entered the
Eurozone in the first place.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com/2011/10/
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