----- Original Message -----
From: Ed Weick
To: [email protected]
Sent: Sunday, June 03, 2012 4:17 PM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] [Ottawadissenters] A little more on the Euro
I'd better stop before I'm justifiably accused of not knowing what I'm talking
about, but we mustn't overlook that Russia, China and a number of central Asian
states are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which exists not
only to promote good relations among members but also acts as a counterbalance
to the US and NATO. Several countries, including India, Iran and Pakistan, are
included in the organization as observers or 'dialogue partners". If Russia
really is interested in Greece, Cyprus and Syria, the reason may be to expand
the 'counterbalance' further. It already does appear to have behind the scene
relations with Syria, which includes the sale of arms to the basher.
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: Barry Randall
To: [email protected]
Sent: Sunday, June 03, 2012 2:46 PM
Subject: RE: [Futurework] [Ottawadissenters] A little more on the Euro
It appears that Russia may have a lot of irons in the fire in the part of the
world that includes Greece, Cyprus and Syria. What could Putin have in mind?
Barry
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of de Bivort Lawrence
Sent: June-03-12 1:47 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [Futurework] [Ottawadissenters] A little more on the Euro
I suspect that any Cyprus assistance will be linked the the long-festering
and still dangerous conflict between Turks and Greeks on Cyprus.
Cheers,
Lawry
On Jun 3, 2012, at 1:42 PM, Barry Randall wrote:
Cyprus closer to seeking EU bail-out
Interesting to note that Cyprus is in trouble and may have to go to the EU
for a bail-out after having been bailed out once by Russia. Could it be that
Russia would bail-out Cyprus and/or Greece with the proviso that they setup a
new parallel currency that Russia would consider a beachhead for a new currency
to compete with the Euro and the US$?
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2e8526c6-ad6f-11e1-97f3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1wkcovKPc
Barry
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ed Weick
Sent: June-03-12 10:42 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Fw: [Futurework] [Ottawadissenters] A little more on the Euro
----- Original Message -----
From: Ed Weick
To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION
Sent: Sunday, June 03, 2012 10:38 AM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] [Ottawadissenters] A little more on the Euro
A couple of points, Lawry. One is that the banking system is highly
connected internationally. To lend money to the Greek or Spanish governments,
Greek or Spanish banks borrowed money from banks in other countries. The
impact would likely be similar to that of the American sub-prime mortgage
crisis of some four years ago. Via the widely traded Consolidated Debt
Obligations it was not only American banks that lost a lot of money, but
foreign banks as well. I think defaults by the highly leveraged members of the
EU would have a much larger negative impact than the sub-prime crisis.
The other point is that the EU governments of Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland
and perhaps others (France?) have kept themselves going by borrowing huge sums
of money. If they defaulted, it is unlikely that anyone would want to lend to
them. What might that mean in terms peace, stability and living standards in
those countries?
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: de Bivort Lawrence
To: [email protected]
Cc: 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EDUCATION'
Sent: Sunday, June 03, 2012 10:17 AM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] [Ottawadissenters] A little more on the Euro
A simplistic question, but one that may, I hope, cut to the chase:
What is the problem if Greece and perhaps Italy and Spain simply default on
their debts, and do nothing else? I can readily see that lenders would
subsequently shy away from making any new loans to those countries, of course,
but...so what?
Can we build a damage/risk tree out from this initial question?
Cheers,
Lawry
On Jun 3, 2012, at 9:20 AM, Ed Weick wrote:
There seemed to be some agreement yesterday that exit from the EU by Greece
and perhaps others like Spain and Italy was inevitable. But is it really?
Greece, Spain and a few other countries have huge debts -- but debts that are
denominated in Euros. It is highly unlikely that creditors would accept
repayment in far less stable currencies like the drachma or the peseta, and
default by some of the larger EU debtors could wreak havoc with the
international banking system. Exit from the EU is, IMHO, most unlikely unless
someone steps in and provides the kind of bailout supports needed. Perhaps the
IMF or, as Barry suggested, Russia? For a countries like Greece or Spain,
would being beholden to Russia be better than being under Germany's thumb?
Ed
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