----- Original Message -----
From: Ed Weick
To: Keith Hudson
Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2012 9:57 AM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] The future according to Rifkin
Keith, you're right about how long carbon based fuels have been used. Early
agricultural villages used wood and coal for heat, for cooking food and for
purposes such as operating forges. But what Rifkin appears to be arguing is
that the massive industrial use of carbon fuels has had very large impact on
the hierarchical structure of society. He who provides the carbon or aids and
abets its provision not only sits on top of the pile but decides who else might
sit up there with him -- ie. determines the nature and composition of your 20
class.
I'm not sure that Rifkin said that the fuels that support the carbon based
economy would run out in 30 years, but he did imply that the end would come
relatively quickly. However, his message was essentially one of hope, of
arguing that if we play things right and firmly established green energy
systems we wouldn't have to worry about the demise of the carbon economy
whenever it comes. Playing things right is where I have a problem with
Rifkin. Some parts of the world may be able to play things right, but I doubt
that much of the world will be able to do so.
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: Keith Hudson
To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION ; Ed Weick
Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2012 7:38 AM
Subject: Re: [Futurework] The future according to Rifkin
Jeremy Rifkin is right, overall, when he says that the present
industrial-consumerist era is coming to an end. He's wrong to say that it's
anything to do with a carbon economy. In the post-hunter-gatherer era, trees
have been burned for fuel and coal outcrops and oil seepages were exploited
wherever found. Even natural gas was used for street lighting in China at
around 200BC. He's wrong about the 30-year supply of oil. There's at least 100
years of this left, plus the natural gas associated with it. Also, fracked gas
and methane clathrates will last for centuries yet, particularly if city-bound
excess populations of the undeveloped world follow the steeply declining
fertility trends of the advanced countries. The last two sources will produce
energy with only about half the residual CO2 as present energy-production
methods.
Jeremy Rifkin is quite right about the power-groups at the top (which I call
the 20-class). But man, like all social mammals, has always tended to stratify.
Once a new species comes into existence, stratification is absolutely necessary
to maintain quality control and to fit the species evermore efficiently into
the environment around it. Be it ever so weakly expressed in some cultures,
females always tend to partner themselves upwards in order to leave handicapped
and inept males behind without issue. The only difference between today and,
say, 300 years ago when the industrial-consumerist revolution was just getting
started, is that we now have more different types of power-groups than before.
Keith
At 19:04 29/08/2012, Ed wrote:
Jeremy Rifkin was the guest on TVO's Agenda during the past two nights.
His ideas flowed out like tidal waves so I can't remember everything he said,
but his central idea seemed to be that the past 200 years shouldn't be thought
of in terms of being market or ideologically driven but in terms of being
driven by the discovery and availability of carbon - ie. coal, oil and natural
gas. A carbon based economy, he argued, leads to "vertical" economic and
social organization of the kind we've had for the past two or three centuries.
The carbon that fuels the economy is something somebody gets for us and
controls us with. Hence it puts some groups at the top of the heap and makes
everyone else subservient to them in a highly stratified and multi-specialized
system.
Ah, he then said, but the carbon economy has to come to an end, and in
Rifkin's opinion it will end very soon. A carbon based economy can't last more
than another 30 years or so. What then? I didn't quite fully grasp what he
was saying, but it was something like vast horizontally organized networks
based on green energy with everybody pitching in and everybody benefiting would
come into being. It all sounded very beautiful though somewhat idealistic if
one considers continued rapid population growth, diminishing agricultural
potential, the growth of cities and global warming.
However, it was interesting. If you want to hear what he said yourselves,
go to the TVO/Agenda website and take a look and listen.
Ed
P.S.: Chris Hedges, co-author of "Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt" is
on the Agenda tonight. I've read the book, and it's not an uplifting happiness
pill.
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Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com
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