Hello, Ray, "Futurists" come in all colors. Some, yes, are dreamers, and fall into the category, if you will, of science fiction writers -- imaginative visions designed to intrigue and spur thinking.
Your basic question, really, comes down to whether a "futurist" has a reliable (or at least examinable) methodology. Probably the least interesting, most pedestrian methodology is simple trend extension: discern a trend dating from the past to the present, and extend it into the future. This method was at the basis of the old-time futurists. Of course, its weakness was that trends do not persist for ever (think sigmoid curve) and so as a predictive method it had sever limitations. Another method, favored by some well-known ex-CIA-type analysts, was to read the public press for trends and consensi on what the future would hold. The weaknesses here are self-evident. So then we come to your query as to whether (some) futurists have fundamental models of how things are and can be, based, I would suggest, most solidly in a systemic approach to the structures and dynamics of the real world. There are some wonderful models available for this. Other kinds of models were those developed by Meadows, et al, EPA/DOE's SEAS, and Leontiev's Input-Output modeling effort. Behind all these approaches lies a seldom mentioned but, in my view, dominating relaity: that the prediction (and especially those predictions that people take seriously) lay the groundwork for people deciding to do things differently -- and thus create results that seem to then deny the validity of the prediction. And this brings me to my favorite theme and the one that has most dominated my thinking and professional work: the deliberate intervention in the affairs of the world (whether at the individual level, or companies, or communities, or that of, say, international systems). The goal with this approach is not so much the prediction of what will happen, but the co-creation of desirable futures, predicted or not. My aphorism on the matter: it is easier to create the future than to predict it. To be successful with this co-creative approach and goal, one does need a largish portfolio of tools -- linguistic, modeling, strategic, tactical, political tools. It takes time and effort to build this portfolio, time and effort to maintain it, and time and effort to introduce others to it. It takes great dedication, patience, and artistry to employ these tools in the pursuit of worthy, complex goals. Learning is continuous. Cheers, Lawry On Nov 11, 2012, at 2:16 PM, Ray Harrell wrote: > Are "Futurists" simple dreamers or are they experts in the Foundations of > things that builds the strength for dreams and separates them from chaos? > > REH > > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Ray Harrell > Sent: Sunday, November 11, 2012 9:57 AM > To: RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION; Amanda Grafton; Ari > Isenberg; Christina Parsons; Darcy Dunn; Ethan Goldberg; Isaac Yager; > Jennifer Rolnick; Phil Kaplan; [email protected]; Sarah Levine; Stephanie > Dream Listener Weems; Summer Greenwald-Gonella > Subject: [Futurework] The Future of Music > > This looks very interesting. > > REH > > > http://futureofmusic.org/events/future-music-summit-2012 > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
_______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [email protected] https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
