Mathew Burrows is quite right (below) to say that although China
might well be the largest economic power in the world before 2030, it
doesn't mean that it will be as much a super-power as America. That
depends on where a country (or a region, or a city) is situated in
the innovation league table. America (and Germany and the UK) are
streets ahead. On the other hand, China (like Japan and S Korea
before it) are copyists. Despite its launch as a free enterprise
economy by Deng Xiaoping 30 years ago, China is still too
authoritative a culture to encourage the sort of young maverick
thinkers and researchers on which innovation depends. China's highly
repressive school system ensures that very few lateral-thinking
students survive to degree level with their creativity intact. The
Chinese government have been aware of this for years but have not
been able to change the educational culture. This is why -- as far as
one can gather -- all Chinese parents who can afford it send their
children in every-increasing numbers and at younger ages to private
schools in America and the UK.
Keith
,
At 23:41 10/12/2012, you wrote:
This is something that several on this list have been predicting for
quite some time now....
<http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20671917>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20671917
10 December 2012 Last updated at 17:53 ET
Asia 'to eclipse' US and Europe by 2030 - US report
[]
How have so many of the world's cities grown so large in recent years?
Asia will wield more global power than the US and Europe combined by
2030, a forecast from the US intelligence community has found.
Within two decades China will overtake the US as the world's largest
economy, the report adds.
It also warns of slower growth and falling living standards in
advanced nations with ageing populations.
<http://www.dni.gov/nic/globaltrends>Global Trends 2030, issued to
coincide with Mr Obama's second term, says it aims to promote
strategic thinking.
Published every four years, the report from the National
Intelligence Council (NIC) aims to draw together a wide sweep of
"megatrends" driving transformation in the world.
'Slow relative decline'
The NIC suggests that by 2030, Asia will have more "overall power"
than the US and Europe combined - taking into account population
size, gross domestic product (GDP), military spending and investment
in technology.
People raise Chinese flag in Beijing, China November 2012
The National Intelligence Council says it does not believe China
will become a superpower like the US
"China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that
of the United States a few years before 2030," the report says.
"Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely to
continue their slow relative declines."
But the report says it does not anticipate that China will emerge as
a superpower in the mould of the US, forging coalitions to take on
international issues.
Speaking at a news briefing, Mathew Burrows, counsellor to the
National Intelligence Council said: "Being the largest economic
power is important... (but) it isn't necessarily the largest
economic power that always is going to be the superpower."
The "megatrends" identified by the report include individual
empowerment and transfer of power from the West to the global East and South.
It highlights ageing societies and a growing middle class, as well
as diminishing natural resources, as key global themes.
Within the next two decades the US will achieve energy independence,
and the size of urban populations around the world will rise
sharply, the report says.
But, the report adds, questions about the global economy,
governance, evolving methods of conflict, regional spillover, new
technologies and the future role of the US could dramatically impact
the global picture over the next 20 years.
The study is the fifth in a series. The last edition was published in 2008.
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