We are approaching an era when socialism and capitalism will be seen to be
woefully inadequate as the description of how a long term world-wide
economy can be maintained. Considering that Obaba has now been able to
launch his Affordable Care Act, I've chosen medical care as my trope.
Socialism will have failed because those governments which developed
sophisticated welfare and health care systems -- with the best of
intentions and according to the democratic wishes of their electorates --
found themselves smothered when wishes turned to demands, and demands
became financially onerous beyond the ability of any government to recoup
from taxation.
Capitalism will have failed when competition between manufacturers of any
standard consumer item will have become so severe that profit margins will
have been driven down to almost zero. This applies similarly to service
providors. In both cases there is little incentive left for any ambitious
individual unless it is purely for personal power over other individuals
rather than social status due to ability.
Socialism can only work when the bulk of health and welfare provision are
dispersed locally, when everybody can see what products and services are
available and what can be afforded. in order to maintain morale, a local
community can also deal with those who are swinging the lead. Once systems,
bureaucracies, incentives and restrictive practices are out of sight, then
reform becomes impossible and decay is inevitable, long before the complete
collapse of the whole. A good example is the failing National Health
Service in England, two generations after its inception. A quarter of newly
qualified doctors choose to leave the profession as soon as they have
sampled hospital life and another quarter opt to emigrate to pleasanter
medical climes such as in New Zealand or Australia. To compenstate, the NHS
hire European doctors of all sorts of standard (whose qualificationa are
not yet collated with ours) or knowledge of Engllish. When I was in
hospital last year, my consultant was a Brahmin. I don't doubt his medical
expertise -- India has a very high standard of medical training -- but he
treated me at more than an arm's distance in case contact with me would
make him unclean.
Capitalism can only hold good so long as there still is sufficient profit
leeway, which can then be recycled into investment for the next new product
or service. However, sooner or later, all profit margins in all goods and
services will be ground down to something close to zero. But not
quite! Although it's likely to be 1% or less, there are still incentives
for those who have sufficient expertise to devise a system that that is a
slightly more efficient than any heretofore and thus will shave a fraction
of 1% in energy costs. This will not produce anything notable by way of
profit, but at least the corporation or the community that adopts the
improved method will be able to survive.
I've been making one assumption in the above. This is that we are
considering the era when all manufacturing and personal services will not
only be totally dependent on computers, but also when software writers and
circuit designers are able to take on board the multiply-layered design
features of the most versatile computer of them all -- the
genetic-epigenetic feedback system that takes place around our DNA.
Meanwhile, we wish all good wishes to Obamacare, and also to those
entrepreneurs who are incentivized by the satisfactions of creativity and
not to become rich.
Keith
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