http://members.tripod.com/~garnold/economy.html -- http://publish.uwo.ca/~mcdaniel/Title: An Economy Without Employment
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An Economy Without Employment
As the labor-saving devices of our world improve, the need and value of human employment decreases. So far, the decrease in employment has been nearly matched (and sometimes exceeded) by the work required to keep machines doing their work. However, with better software and greater technological integration, the need (and ability) of humans to compete with machines is beginning to disappear.
The biggest push toward a non-employment economy will be the perfection of nanotechnology. Computers (and the machines controlled by them) will be so efficient that it will be absurd to think that people should still have to struggle beside them to build products and provide services. We need to begin planning now for the transition toward a completely automated system of production and distribution. I am not saying that work will be eliminated completely, just that human labor will lose its economic value so that what work is done will be do-it-yourself type work or work for pleasure. We all will need a way to benefit from the labor of computers and robots in order to survive economically.
Surely we will not have a government controlling this automated future economy in some simplistic fashion like Communism or Fascism. Nor will every person in the world own a universal nano assembling device any time soon that can produce anything they want or need. The future non-employment based economy will no doubt develop over time and be a hybrid of market and social forces all working together.
The Trends
At the time of this writing (started June 1997), the stock markets of the United States and several other countries are gaining strength very slowly and steadily. This indicates the growth may be sustained over a long time. If there are no major disasters or wars, then the world economy should continue to improve in the forseeable future. The increased efficiency (fueled largely by improved use of technology) is generating wealth for lots of people. Since automation is just beginning to become standardized and cost-effective, we can expect the efficiency of business to improve worldwide.Part 2: Models for an Automated Economy - - > - This is a more precise look at how an automated economy might be started and what our lifestyles may be like in an age of abundance.
The changes are happening fast enough that we need to begin preparing now for a nearly complete overhaul of our social institutions. Already, middle managers are being eliminated. These are people who glean through information and establish access to resources. This need has been almost totally eliminated by the Internet and office automation. Receptionists and secretaries are being greatly reduced due to the same innovations. In my former profession (computer operations) the computer systems have become so easy to operate that professionals are no longer needed. Some systems need only occasional monitoring and can automatically page somebody when intervention is required. Where work is not being totally eliminated, it is being done by fewer people.
What jobs are being made available are increasingly geared toward the development and use of automated systems. Computer programmers, system designers and engineers are all working on computer or robotic systems that reduce the need for human labor. In this way, growth toward a non-employment based economy is increasing at a fairly rapid pace. Occasional job increases due to business expansion are now often temporary until a more automated system is in place. The public tends to see short reductions in jobless rates as evidence that jobs are not being eliminated. Business observers are fond of saying that the eliminated jobs are being replaced by other jobs. In certain isolated and temporary cases this is true. But the fact remains that automation is going to soon be able to do anything that humans can do (only automation will do it better).
Update: November, 1997 - The unemployment rate continues to be very high throughout Europe despite a relatively strong economy. France has been the first to enact a shorter work week to spread the available work around. I predict that we will see more of this trend. Also, the Clinton Administration Net czar Ira Magaziner admits that jobs will vanish as more business is done online, but claims that in the long run, even more jobs will be created. Interestingly, he says nothing about where these new jobs will come from.
Update: November, 1998 - Despite a quite severe economic downturn in Asia and in Russia, the economies of the United States and Europe have stayed fairly robust. Online commerce is now BIG business and the use of online banking and plastic currencies like check cards have increased as well. However, the public at large still has its head in the sand in regards to the implications of the encroaching automation.
Currently, jobs are gravitating toward the "service" sector. It is no coincidence that this is a sector in which automation has not yet taken hold. Right now, robots are not dexterous or creatively innovative enough (cost effectively) to cook hamburgers but this is changing rapidly. Autotellers and online banking are reducing the number of bank tellers needed. Gas stations are now all self-service, and engine diagnostics are being done by computers at full service auto repair shops. This increase in efficiency tends to increase the profit margins, although competition still works to drive prices down. So the trend is toward manual labor=0, cost=0. The argument that more help will be needed to repair and maintain equipment is flawed since the cost of computer based equipment is plummeting so fast that it is quickly becoming "disposable".
Update: November, 1998 - We might now say that computers are already disposable. If a new computer is faulty, whatever part is bad simply gets replaced (even if its a motherboard). Most computers are getting upgraded or replaced constantly.
Surely, as costs of human labor (and related factors) decrease, the cost of living itself should decrease. When the cost of living for any particular year becomes as low or lower than the amount of revenue generated by a modest mutual fund, then human labor for hire will be impractical, undesirable, and unnecessary. The effort to account for the "cost" of materials and services may itself become wasteful. Perhaps we will see the day when the only accounting necessary is that needed to determine how much of a product to produce and where to ship it.
Oddly, some of the people who cling most vigorously to the notion that technology will NOT reduce jobs are technophiles (people who embrace technology). Proponents of technology often deny that jobs are being eliminated when they should be advocating an automated economy and its resulting life of leisure. Many proponents of technology are overly concerned about alarmist reactions from modern day luddites as job opportunities begin decreasing in earnest. There are also many "futurists" who make a living by holding motivational seminars at major corporations in order to train workers to be efficient as if they will always be able to out-perform computers and robots. These types of futurists are trying to maintain the status quo instead of truly preparing for the future.
How Should We Prepare Ourselves?
For now, my best advice is to invest money, time, and effort into businesses that intelligently exploit technology. In this way, we have the technology working for us since we are part owners of companies we invest in. Another good way to avoid the current disadvantages of unemployment is to keep ourselves educated about technology. In this way, we remain employed as long as possible while the infrustructure of the non-employment based economy is continuing to develop. Also, we are in a much better position to assure that technology works for us if we know how technology works. Ignorance will only thwart our bliss. By promoting widespread knowledge of computers and networking, we can help to ease the transition toward the age of complete automation. The Internet is helping people get acclimated toward an automated environment. In addition to investing in companies that are using technology, and increasing knowledge about technology, I am encouraging people to actually invest in the technology itself and actively begin putting it to work for themselves.
I am personally doing this by putting together a SOHO office and LAN system. I am developing this facility to enhance my possibility of generating an income as long as an "income" is needed. By having all the required business resources at my fingertips and being willing to telecomute, I improve my chances of success as the economy becomes more technology dependent. I am also investigating ways to generate income of my own automatically.
A third important part of adjusting toward our future economy is to encourage philanthropy. Since there will be such vast resources among the wealthy, they should come to realize that it will only help them to arrange for the less fortunate to obtain the means to live comfortably. I suggest that corporations and wealthy individuals make business stocks (or other interests) available to less fortunate people as opposed to simply giving them food, clothing, or money. The stocks would be a gift that keeps giving. It would be like teaching the man to fish instead of giving him a fish.
One difficulty with philanthropy is that people on the recieving end tend to want to feel like they have somehow earned what they get. This sentiment is a survival trait which has been devised by society to persuade everybody to do their fair share of the workload while human labor was still needed to get things done. Such a noble notion in the industrial age can cause unnecessary grief in an automated economy where a person's labor has no economic value. Many old and deeply-held notions about life will need to be changed if we are going to adjust happily to a world of leisure. How odd that the life-long vacation we always wanted while we were working leaves us sitting around wishing we had a job! Of course, some work will always be done since activity is needed such as exercise in order to keep our bodies healthy. People will be doing more work for the shear pleasure of it. Hobbies such as gardening, carpentry, and cooking will only decrease the need of work for pay. We should think more in terms of walking or riding a bicycle wherever we want to go and try to make our communities better suited for leisurely lifestyles. Many hints can be gained by looking at retirement communities. Also, philanthropy does not necessarily require the giver to be wealthy. We can all give of our time, efforts, and talents. This could be one way in which the workaholics can adjust to these changes. Some writers in the Open Source software movement have discussed a developing "gift" based economy that could replace capitalism. In fact, the way many software developers are writing freeware and shareware programs solely for the fun and glory may be the most fitting model on which to base our future economy.
"We find all the no-life-support-wealth-producing people going to their 1980 jobs in their cars or buses, spending trillions of dollars' worth of petroleum daily to get to their no-wealth-producing jobs. It doesn't take a computer to tell you that it will save both Universe and humanity trillions of dollars a day to pay them handsomely to stay at home." - R. Buckminster Fuller (1981)
The disproportionate wealth of certain individuals like Microsoft CEO Bill Gates should become an issue as more people are left jobless. Don't get me wrong; I am NOT opposed to profits. However, the social environment becomes unstable when the lion's share of wealth is controlled by too small of an elite group (especially when a large segment of the population have no means for basic survival). This will be the case if we do not devise some new form of economy that allows for the well-being of individuals who for whatever reason have no skills or knowledge that is considered marketable in a highly automated world.
Adjusting to a Life of Leisure
One of the more interesting objections that critics have of my future scenario is the question of how people will spend all the leisure time available to them in a totally automated world. It is true that some people do not have enough imagination to occupy themselves without busy work or some kind of corporation to lead them around by the nose. We currently see people who are "forced" to retire and then lose all interest in life. I suggest that it is mostly force of habit (based on necessity) which has taught some of us to center our lives so closely around our occupations.
"To be able to fill leisure intelligently is the last product of civilization, and at present very few people have reached this level" - Bertrand Russell (1930)."Leisure is a condition for which the human species has been badly prepared, because until very recently it was enjoyed by only a few, who contributed very little to the gene pool. Large numbers of people are now at leisure for appreciable periods of time, but there has been no chance for effective selection of either a relevant genetic endowment or a relevant culture." - B.F. Skinner (1971)
As for the increasing masses of people who will have no employment based livelyhood, they can not simply be ignored. When Marie Antoinette suggested that the peasants should "eat cake", the peasants saw to it that she was force-fed the blade of a guillotine on the back of her neck. It is clearly in the best interest of the wealthy to make sure most people are able to live comfortably. The good news is that the efficiency of automation should produce enough wealth for all citizens to live well (providing that it gets distributed widely enough).
We ARE going to experience an economic revolution. The question is; will it be a peaceful or a violent revolution? Will we have simply a shifting of the wealth or a balancing of the wealth? Again, I don't advocate a formally planned, regulated, governmental solution. Such methods are usually unsatisfying and often unfair. I suggest a multi-pronged approach in which all sectors of society play a role. Perhaps a basic allotment might be part of the solution during the transition. Ultimately, almost everything should be free and very little accounting for costs should be needed. Interestingly, the process of accounting for money is currently one of the biggest job markets. When the need for accounting (banking, insurance, etc.) is eliminated, a lot of unnecessary busy work will vanish and the efficiency of basic living will skyrocket. I don't think that I (or any other individual) can come up with all the answers to this dilemma. We must get a dialogue going so that society can work out the problem itself. However, I do have some suggestions.
We can start by lowering prices for goods and services that are bringing in inflated profits. The freeware and shareware (software) that we see is an example of how prices can be lowered and even eliminated. Companies should be encouraged to allow telecommuting, flex time, and shorter hours in order to keep more people employed to some degree while the transition is taking place. Individual citizens should strive to make their lives more efficient. By reducing the cost of living, we reduce the need for employment-based revenue. By recycling our resources more effectively, we increase our efficiency. The recycleables which are in your possession should be figured in as part of your net worth. Goods and services which have prices that are dis-proportionate to their costs need to be adjusted downward. Examples of this are clothing and accessories which are marked up tremendously due to name brand only or celebrity endorsements. A life of leisure will be enjoyable for celebrities as well. Professional athletes are getting paid way too much. Consumers can help to readjust our economy by spending money wisely. If a product or service is over-priced, then don't buy it. This is one of the ideological adjustments we need to make.
We should all consider our personal time to be very valuable. We should take advantage of all the spare time we have for our own use. If an employer is going to intrude on our personal time, they should be required to pay handsomly for it. If this means that a robot becomes cost-effective and takes over our job, so be it! The efficiency of the robot will help drive down the cost, which will move us closer to our cost-free society. We should all strive to do more work for ourselves in a self-help fashion. This cuts costs, improves efficiency, and keeps us physically occupied as we adjust to a life of almost continuous leisure. Everybody needs to have at least a couple of hobbies that they really enjoy. Take the time to do more of those things which you always wanted to do. Make enjoying life a habit. This will improve the quality of your life while helping to improve the health of your mind and body.
Use (and encourage the use of) plastic money and online business. The new plastic forms of currency like credit cards, phone cards, check cards, and smart cards are more efficient than paper money. Also, they encourage us to realize that money is just an abstraction (a social construct or set of contingencies). Once we realize that "wealth" is nothing more than an agreed upon way of manipulating numbers, we can dispense with the whole business and take a giant leap toward our automated economy. Online business in all its forms moves us in the same direction. It will be better if all sectors of the economy move toward full automation at the same pace. However, the most important thing is to be aware of where we are heading and to prepare ourselves. We are going to have a life of leisure and we need to start making adjustments now.
Related Links
Links to the Future (Economies of the Future) - A few links related to a possible automated economy.
Economy Becoming Automated (Oct. 1997) - An update on progress toward an automated economy.
Excerpt from "Gipson Arnold's Futurist Predictions" - Here, I try to give an idea of when an automated economy may develop.
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