For its fifth anniversary, Prospect polled its writers on their own state of mind and their predictions for the future. Question Two: Over the next five to ten years, which currently unforeseen political, cultural, intellectual or scientific trend will have the most impact upon our lives? JULIAN LE GRAND, Richard Titmuss Professor of Social Policy, London School of Economics: We may be about to enter a period of increasing civil disorder. This is for two reasons. First, the growth of the winner-take-all society, where the winners get everything and even runners-up get very little. Good tenors used to be able to make a living; but who needs them now, with CDs by Pavarotti and Domingo available for a song (so to speak)? Who watches Scunthorpe when Manchester United is on television? The consequences are runaway incomes at the top and stagnation at the bottom, with a continuing growth in inequality and poverty. Top sportspeople, actors, professionals, businesspeople do just fine; but everyone else feels devalued and demoralised. At the same time the winners begin to close the door behind them, living in gated communities, travelling first class to private islands, purchasing private education for their children (and hence places at Oxbridge and beyond). This breeds increasing resentment not only at the bottom but in the middle as well. Second, the breakdown of the family, the growth of single parents, the drive for all parents (double or single) to go to work and the spread of longer working hours: all mean that more and more children are increasingly being brought up by some-one other than their parents. A major instrument of socialisation is being lost. Result: the production of unsocialised adults, alienated, unstable, potentially violent. Put these two things together-rising social resentment and a slackening of social controls-and we have a recipe for civil disorder. Probably not revolution-unless the winners completely close the door to would-be entrants. But expect riots, increased hooliganism, rises in alcohol and other forms of addiction, increases in crime especially violent crime, vigilante action. Indeed all of these things we are beginning to see, except riots-and even they may not be far away. Forty years ago Michael Young predicted in [itals]The Rise of the Meritocracy[end itals] that meritocracies would eventually collapse due to their own internal contradictions. Our imperfect meritocracy is stumbling; maybe a fall is on its way, unless we can reverse some of these trends. Tom Walker Bowen Island, BC 604 947 2213
