Here are two ironies concerning the Kyoto proposals. Both of them illustrate the accidents of politics and that the present type of Kyoto proposals -- and their possible intensification in future years -- will always be at the mercy of political contingencies. If man-made fossil-fuel burning is indeed causing climate changes that might start running away into total breakdown, then it might need the largest nation-states to impose a draconian solution everywhere in the world if there is resistance -- particularly in stopping the deforestation in Brazil, Indonesia and so on which, by logging and burning, is at present is contributing 20% of the global total of CO2. Such a decision could only be justified if scientific opinion is a great deal more unanimous than at present. But here are the ironies: 1. The Kyoto process was actually initiated by Thatcher -- one of the arch enemies of many Greens. Prime Minister Thatcher, no doubt because she was scientifically trained (a chemist), was the only leading politician who felt strongly about the gathering evidence of global warming. But such was her stature at the time (everybody else was taking up UK-type privatisation) that she was able to get the whole debate started. I cannot think of any other Prime Minister or President of any developed country or world statesman, either then or now, who personally feels strongly about global warming. Nobody else could have got the debate started. Gore might have been able to but, fairly or not (and I happen to think not), he didn't become President; 2. The Kyoto Treaty could have been signed in November 2000 and everybody was ready for it (including Clinton) except that Dominique Voynet, the French Environment Minister and an extreme Green (intellectually bright but virulently anti-English and anti-American) suddenly had a violent verbal spat with John Prescott, Deputy UK Prime Minister (intellectually handicapped and a bit of a bruiser). Prescott then walked out and she then reneged on the original understanding that America could trade-off large-scale tree-planting against fossil-fuel burning for a few years while other measures were agreed. America is now out of it for the time but climate research is already accelerating. Furthermore, I will make a guess that Bush will announce at the Genoa G8 meeting (starting today or tomorrow) that he will be throwing more funding at research. Keith Hudson ___________________________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Calus <http://www.calus.org> 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
