Hi Keith et al,
At 01:17 AM 7/19/2001 Thursday , Keith wrote:
>Hi Ray,
>
>At 12:14 18/07/01 -0400, you wrote:
>
[snip]
>
>I maintain that the Precautionary Principle is not yet applicable in this
>case because, if the present weather changes are not due to the rise in CO2
>(no-one is doubting the rise itself) but are a natural fluctuation (so far,
>well within the range of natural changes in history), then the effect on
>the American economy (if the US accepts Kyoto) would be unnecessary and
>damaging. From what I read there are sufficient numbers of eminent
>climatologists who are not yet convinced by the evidence.
>
I beg to disagree. There is little dispute that the rate at which
we are discovering new oil is soon to fall beneath the rate at which
we are using it up. This may be reached, I have heard, within this
decade. More importantly, when the cost of new oil approaches the
its value, the price will escalate.
Therefore, we had better be researching and installing alternate
energy sources asap. Waiting even one year is a years opportunity
cast lost.
Solar technologies are here now. They become economic as soon as oil
prices rise by 1.5x or less. If all the military, ecologic,
distribution costs were internalize, solar would probably be cheaper
than oil now.
Please note that this IS INDEPENDENT OF whether global warming is
man made or not. It doesn't matter! The switch to less polluting
sources is the right thing to do in any case. The economy as a
whole will not be adversely affected, only the oil company's bottom
line.
Money spent on new energy supplies will simply be transferred to
other companies, not even that if the energy companies invest in
solar / renewable energy sources. Distributed energy generators
will save the losses in transmission lines. Photo-voltaics will
become a major new industry. Conservation will save building new
generating plants, saving consumers but not necessarily the
generator companies.
It would be nice to know more exactly why the weather is changing.
But we should do the "right" things today, not in '03 or later.
dennis paull
Los Altos, CA
