1. Do you believe everything you read?
2. Do you normally place the output of large bureaucratic *political* institutions in high ranking as to accuracy and lack of bias?
3. Do you believe that linear causation can work in human economies such that anyone (person, group, institution...) can cause: an outcome such as:
(CR)"They *should* also get other advantages, e.g. a more stable economy..."
SK:
The relative success of the Euro will be apparent in perhaps 5 years when trade balances, environmental standards, unemployment trends, etc. can be viewed across all of Europe. Those countries not joining now will either say "glad we didn't" or "let's join now"
(CR)Independent economists have listed many other harms (e.g. higher unemployment) which have indeed arrived since the introduction of the Euro.
SK:
Corellation is meaningless. Causation is impossible to prove. System entirely too complex. This is the last time I'll respond on this. You've probably heard the old saying that goes something like "What do you get when you put 100 economists in a room? Answer: 101 different opinions."
SK: Yes. The policy setting by the 'Euro co untries' together gets many times the weight when negotiating with US, China, Japan, UK etc.
CR:
"That's an imperial argument rather than an economic one. (although of course the economy will be influenced by imperial strength) I asked for *economic* arguments (let's say EU-internal effects on daily life"
SK:
Arbitrary definition by you. International economic competition has direct effects on the daily lives of populace. Witness farmers protests, steel dumping, etc. Current system is economic war (Lester Thurow: Head to Head, 1992) I'm not defending it as the best possible global system, but it is current reality. The Euro might help Europeans ALOT, and those crapping on it in the opening stages are being POLITICAL, not economically and socially astute and benevolent towards the populace.
CR:SK: Maybe yes, maybe no. It is always the case that there are powerful interests that try to get personal benefit at the expense of others. But the Euro may or may not result in the outcomes you envisage. You are guessing, my friend. In my view the developed world is likely to be in a worsening recession for 2-3 years. Common policies and currency might prove *relatively* beneficial. And the PRICE of the Euro vs other currencies at the end of a few years WILL BE somewhat indicative of the success or failure of its introduction, whatever protests you make from a moral point of view. When economies fall apart, people suffer & so do their currencies.
"However, in the EMU, *different* persons/groups/countries will reap the benefits than have the disadvantages."
No further response from me on this.
Cheers & Happy Solstice,
Steve
-- http://magma.ca/~gpco/ http://www.scientists4pr.org/ Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.—Kenneth Boulding
