KH I have great sympathy for Carmen. I think I know what she is feeling. Some 15 years ago one of my friends was a young Argentinian poet who had to leave his university and the country hurriedly because his friends were being picked up by the death squads, becoming part of the thousands of the "disappeared" intellectuals and political activists. He only managed to get into this country because he married an English girl. Once again, Carmen, please keep a low profile. Argentina might be moving into equally dangerous times.
Cordell I too had a strange and unsettling experience re: Argentina. During the time of the "desaparecidos". I was at a conference in Germany, aimed at environmental issues. An Argentinian economist was there and he talked a lot about the future and people and such. At a coffee break I said to him that he seemed to be the sort of person who cared about social justice. He blanched and looked around the room as though I had caught him at doing something wrong. He asked, no demanded, why do you say that? What have I said or in what ways did I act that indicated I cared in such a way? Of course he was scared...I didn't fully realize how bad things were in Argentina until the curtain of secrecy was lifted. I lost touch with him. I hopw he survived. Keith is right. In such a time when the financial security of the population is at risk there is a strong possibilty of violence (either overt or covert)...so watch and wait. Or emmigrate. Arthur -----Original Message----- From: Keith Hudson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] Sent: Monday, December 31, 2001 3:29 AM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Ice machines and Argentina I have what may be thought a curious connection with Argentina -- the ice machine -- and the news on this morning's radio that President Adolfo Rodriguez Raa has resigned (together with the next-in-line) has prompted some further thoughts. When my house was built two centuries ago, a vault was cut into the limestone cliff immediately behind my house to serve as an ice room in which to store food. It is now my office from which I'm writing now. The ice was imported from a freshwater lake near Boston, Massachusetts, but the ice machine was invented in 1847 and imports were suddenly no longer needed. An ice factory was built about a quarter of a mile from here and ice-carts were dragged up the hill on an iron chain. The ice machine, along with the invention of barbed wire, also meant that an Argentina without too many basic resources became exceedingly prosperous very quickly. Vast herds of cattle were coralled, new railroads were built that brought the cattle from the pampas to meat-packing plants in Buenos Aires and the chilled carcases shipped to the expanding populations of Europe. Between 1880 and 1910 the population of Buenos Aires alone expanded from 210,000 to 1.2 million and large numbers of immigrants from Italy Spain, France and Germany poured in. Strangely, British immigrants didn't feature much, although most of the vast railroad and factory investments that were required by Argentina were from British banks. By about 1900, Argentina was the fourth or fifth most prosperous country in the world. Unlike England, Germany, the USA and other industrial countries where prosperity arose mainly from a varied base of internal enterprise and innovation, Argentina's growth was based on its meat industry (and grain) alone and the ability of its small land-owning class to negotiate large loans from European banks. Thus, a culture of dependency arose in Argentina from the 19th century. The land-owning debtors, without a banking/financial culture behind them, were not always enthusiastic about paying their debts. On the other hand, the British bankers lent too freely. A Royal Commission at the turn of the century revealed that many bankers and money brokers couldn't even find Argentia on a world map! So, with blame on both sides, Argentina has been raising large loans, then defaulting, ever since the 19th century. In the course of this century, spendthrift Presidents such as Peron continued the culture of borrowing heavily in order to placate ordinary Argentinians, particularly during the Great Depression and also WWII when exports slumped because of either lack of demand or shipping losses due to warfare. So that's the background to the present situation. The idea of introducing a new "parallel" currency, the Argentino, was only devised in the hope that ordinary people could continue to be given state benefits (in depreciating Argentinos) while also protecting the value of the Peso/Dollar currency for the sake of the rich and to pay back the defaulted loans (which will have to be done before any more investments will be possible). Most countries can't even manipulate one official currency. The idea of manipulating two official currencies was, in my opinion, a nonsense from the start. Now that Argentia is now in social, economic and legislative chaos, I cannot imagine that the Argentino can possibly come about even though it was supposed to be soundly based by being backed up by government-owned wealth of land and buildings. But this backing would have been woefully inadequate anyway. My guess is that Argentina will become very much like Russia with a weak official currency, the Peso (in order to pay out state benefits) and an important informal currency -- the US$ -- which will be the medium for the grey economy. Or Argentina could dollarise completely. Either way, it looks as though there's a dictator in the offing probably, like Peron, backed up by the army and the police. In the medium to longer term Argentina will have to develop its own enterprise culture to replace the dependency culture (at all levels) with which it is now unfortunately saddled. I don't know whether Carmen Lopez, our Argentinian economist friend, is still subscribing to FW. If she is, my advice to her is either to emigrate (see below) or to sit tight and keep a low profile for the time being (see below), and then, if and when things settle down, try to associate herself professionally with a promising enterprise -- because that will be the only positive way forward. I have great sympathy for Carmen. I think I know what she is feeling. Some 15 years ago one of my friends was a young Argentinian poet who had to leave his university and the country hurriedly because his friends were being picked up by the death squads, becoming part of the thousands of the "disappeared" intellectuals and political activists. He only managed to get into this country because he married an English girl. Once again, Carmen, please keep a low profile. Argentina might be moving into equally dangerous times. Keith Hudson __________________________________________________________ "Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in order to discover if they have something to say." John D. Barrow _________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________
