-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of Ed Weick
Sent: January 21, 2002 2:05 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Global Warming/Global Cooling

Zeno Swijtink:

> Note that PPCC stands for "Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
> Change." "Global warming" is the catch term used mostly in the
> popular press, although it is also part of the PPCC's claims. The
> more complete claim is that weather will be more erratic, more
> variable, with an overall average warming trend.
>
> Obviously, global warming is not refuted by some local temperatures
> going down. In fact, some "scenarios predict that Britain could get
> much colder, if melting ice from Greenland diverts the warming gulf
> stream away from the British Isles."
> http://www.canuk.org.uk/aboutmain.htm
>

Indeed. In "The Ingenuity Gap", Thomas Homer Dixon reviews some of the possible effects that increases in global temperature could have on ocean currents. Diversion of the Gulf Stream is one of these.

As the following item on this morning's CBC news suggests, the effects of increases in global tempertures are already being felt by some Arctic species:

Slimmer polar bears could point to global warming

IQALUIT - One of the long-term effects of global warming may be thinner polar bears, says a northern scientist working in western Hudson Bay.

Dr. Ian Stirling has been studying bears for the Canadian Wildlife Service in Churchill, Manitoba, for close to 30 years.

Stirling has been observing the condition of the polar bears and their cubs when they come onto the shores of western Hudson Bay. He says ice is breaking an average of two weeks earlier than in recent years, giving the bears less time to feed on seals.

"We've been suspecting this for a while, that some of the females, in fact, are running out of fat and they're leaving the denning areas earlier than they used to," said Stirling.

The smaller window of time has also caused the bears to feed on different types of seals, including harbour seals and bearded seals.

"I think we're looking at a period in the Arctic where we're going to be seeing a lot of things that are going to be different than things we've seen before," said Stirling.

He issues a caution, however, by pointing out that much more research is needed before any long-term conclusions can be drawn. Ben Kovic, the chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board, agrees that additional studies are important.

"Research still has to continue to answer some of these outstanding questions. The west Hudson Bay polar bear population is more critical because they would be the first ones to be affected if it's a global warming issue," said Kovic.

Both men do say that study on the polar bears of western Hudson Bay could show what the future holds for bears elsewhere in the Arctic."

Ed Weick


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