Hi Steve, It's nice to have someone on FW agreeing with me for a change!
However (with my second pot of tea of the day) I have before me an article by Gerard Baker in today's FT headed: "America sails serenely through a perfect storm", with the subtitle, "If current trends hold, it is likely that the US will make a remarkable recovery from its shortest recession on record." In the article itself (which I haven't yet read properly), he doesn't seem to give any factual evidence. But it's now time for my dogwalk and reading it further will have to wait for breakfast time. So we will see (as you say, "in the next few weeks") whether Baker or we will have to eat our words! Incidentally, what I didn't mention in my original posting is that within each of the last three recessions there was a "W"-shaped surge in investment. There's so much liquidity sloshing around at present that no doubt this will also happen this time. The point is though that this sort of attempted "recovery" investment had better be high-quality (and with quick results) or else it will fail to promote a wider recovery. It's most unlikely to be successful in my view. There are too many other things that are awry. Keith At 17:07 23/01/02 -0500, you wrote: >My analysis here in North America matches Keith's, as does one done by a >friend in Australia. Mine & my friend's include technical analysis >alongside the historic fundamental approach. There is a fan distribution >top being formed in the S& P 500 index (500 largest US public >companies). The next few weeks are critical. If the market can't rally >above long term moviing average (200 day) and hold above it for some >months, the liklihood is that the loews of last October will be tested. >In my view they will not hold, and valuations will then have a >significant reduction to the P/E levels Keith mentions. The big unknown >is what the earnings themselves will be. If they drop, say 25%, the >stocks might have another 50% to drop! > >Steve > >-- >http://magma.ca/~gpco/ >http://www.scientists4pr.org/ >Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a >finite world is either a madman or an economist.--Kenneth Boulding > > > > > __________________________________________________________ �Writers used to write because they had something to say; now they write in order to discover if they have something to say.� John D. Barrow _________________________________________________ Keith Hudson, Bath, England; e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] _________________________________________________
