To the List,
As a New Yorker, the following article pretty well says it all for me.
Keller and I are the same age.     I too lived through such things as the
Cuban Missile madness.    Does anyone remember the movie "Fail Safe"?
Much more frightening than Dr. Strangelove and my later years in the
military made it worse as I sat next to an Officer specialist in CBR
(Chemical, Biological, Radiological)  in the infirmary for the Pentagon.
We both had the flu.   He was lamenting the President's ban on CBR.    He
said it was the best way to cleanse a city so that we could move right in
and take over the technology with no problems from a dead population.
This was the Puritan solution to the Pequot "problem" as well when they
burned alive every man, woman, child and dog in the Pequot capital city.
The Pequots burned in silence.   Something that so freaked out the Puritan's
Narragansitt allies that they turned away in respect for the Pequots
stubborn courage.    No running and screaming through the streets with
burning buckskin.    It merely frightened the Puritans and contributed to
all of those "they are not human" stereotypes that plagues our relationship
to enemies down to the present day.

I place that CBR conversation right up next to hitch hiking across Oklahoma
and being picked up by drug dealers and a white lawyer who complained about
the settlements that he got for the Cherokees which brought him ten million
(10% of the settlement, multiply that by six for today's dollar) while each
Cherokee got under $400.    When I asked him questions he grew frightened
and put me out quickly.    They weren't harsh or even pushy but he sure was
guilty.     Lawyers, Drug Dealers and Death creation for expediency.

I never forgave Kennedy or Khrushchev.     The society lied to us constantly
and we were taught most of all to be gullible.   Those from off the
reservation did not receive such hokum.   My fellow soldiers couldn't
believe how naive those of us from the Res were.   When someone claimed
something, our impulse was to accept their word.   The most unbelievable
things were said simply and as if they were true and we were supposed to
believe them.    The speeches by politicians, diplomats, Kings, Generals and
even Princesses eventually broke down that gullibility but my "knee-jerk"
reaction is still to believe what people say even when my own perceptions
are screaming "fool don't listen to this person."    "He is out to trick you
for his own benefit!"    "Look!   Think!  What is really being said?   and
What do I get by being such a fool?"    In the world where I now live, my
only reprieve is for the Russians (the Evil Incarnate Enemy)  for they had
the good sense to give up their system in the end rather than die in a
Nuclear Winter.    Something I still question our morality, or good sense,
about.

One of the things that I have noticed in my sixth decade is how cynical I am
about humans.    I've watched people, for little reason, destroy each other
in the name of theories that are proven simply by virtue of the fact that
they are spoken or written about in the Dictionary.

I'm afraid the Cold War made little sense to me considering my people and
profession's history with the systems of America.    Why couldn't Truman
have blown up an uninhabited island first and delivered an ultimatum?   The
history within my own family makes little sense and the fights make even
less.    A continuous competition and litigeousness over such things as
Comparative Advantage, Land ownership, Private Property, Scientific
Reductionism and Religious literality that proves that such people never
translated a text or understood an Oriental much less a language of the
people that they constantly abused and erased at will.    How can we ascribe
cost effectiveness to life?     Today we treat other animals in the same way
that we treated humans until Mengele showed us how monstrous that was.
Anyone who knows the history of Tropical Medicine knows that he was not an
aberration.

So I watched the towers burst into flame and was fascinated at this latest
example of such things.   When they fell I felt strategic rather than
emotional, from the same place where I have experienced people's disconnect
from my own people's continuing travail over the last 200 years.    Today I
feel that the humans on the other side of the world have no sense whatsoever
of the toys that they play with.   I am embarrassed that it was the Soviets
who chose to give up in the face of a Nuclear Winter, rather than my
country.   I am embarrassed that my own country shows so little empathy or
intelligence that they would be too suspicious of anyone speaking Arabic to
hire a translator for the FBI, CIA or NSA to translate their information.
Americans are stupid about language reducing it to a rejection when another
language is spoken.   That gives our competitors an immense advantage.
Well read Keller, I've said enough.

Ray Evans Harrell




June 15, 2002
Fear Factor
By BILL KELLER


During the maximum jitters of the Cuban missile crisis, the high school
where I was an impressionable freshman happened to be holding an assembly.
The star speaker was a priest from San Francisco, who arranged to have his
remarks interrupted by a student delivering a note. The priest studied the
note, then looked up with a somber face and announced that the Soviet Union
and the United States had just launched nuclear missiles at each other.
Forty years later, I can still hear the terrified whimper in that auditorium
as we all considered our imminent doom. But I can't remember a word of what
the speaker said afterward. That's the thing about fear: It gets your
attention and then refuses to give it back.
Fear has been on my mind a good deal lately, since this paper's Sunday
magazine assigned me to survey the possibilities of nuclear terror, from
stolen warheads and homemade nuclear explosives to dirty bombs and the
sabotage of nuclear power plants. Some of the threats actually struck me as
less alarming on close examination. Dirty bombs, for instance - conventional
explosives packed with radioactive contaminants - are fairly easy to make
but the radiation is unlikely to be very lethal. Sober analysis had a hard
time competing with grisly scenarios, though, and readers were more likely
to remember the one-kiloton nuclear weapon I detonated (hypothetically) in
front of the World Wrestling Federation gift shop on Times Square.
By coincidence, the article landed just as the Bush administration was
trying to inoculate itself against further charges of insufficient
vigilance. While the magazine was at the printer, Donald Rumsfeld was
telling Congress that terrorists would "inevitably" be armed some day with
nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, and New Yorkers were hearing vague
warnings about the Brooklyn Bridge and the Statue of Liberty. We now know
that the government already had in custody a Chicago street punk turned
jihad wannabe who allegedly talked about making a dirty bomb; the man was
put forward this week by our hyperventilating attorney general as some kind
of nuclear Jackal. As a fear-monger, I've had powerful company.
Letters and e-mails have poured in. A few readers objected that I had
published a "road map for terrorists." Rest assured, the technical
information in the article would not surprise a sophomore physics major. The
few useful details I learned that are not widely known I left out, thinking
less about the next World Trade Center than about the next Columbine High
School. A couple of readers suggested that I had abetted the evildoers by
identifying targets; tragically, I'm not the first to think of New York City
in this regard, and the other iconic destination that came up in the
article, Disneyland, was actually suggested by an elderly Russian physicist.
A more common complaint was that it is senseless, sensationalistic or just
way too depressing to dwell on threats without offering answers. Not that
the article was entirely without prescriptions, but it was not a to-do list,
and there was perhaps an undertone of fatalism. Some readers pleaded for
guidance. One mordant New Yorker wrote in asking for a list of neighborhoods
likely to remain beyond the range of radioactive fallout - "and please
indicate which have the best school systems."
The problem with threats like nuclear terror is that they are not solved but
managed, not eliminated but faced, cut down to size and endured.
We lived with our last great nuclear nightmare - that hurricane of
intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Soviet Union - for nearly half
a century, and we kept our fears in check by employing a range of defenses
that were none of them foolproof. We fumbled for decades to find the right
mix of military readiness, geopolitical calculation, negotiation and
attitude so we could coexist with the danger of Armageddon. To a significant
degree, we redesigned our society around the threat.

The things that worked best - a sufficient arsenal to deter attack, the
diplomacy of containment, the painstaking business of arms control - were
imperfect and complicated. They also had unforeseen consequences, some of
which haunt us now, like the black market in nuclear remnants and the
cold-war blowback of places like Afghanistan. (Meet the new threat, son of
the old threat.) But here we still are.
The easy answers were expensive placebos, like President Reagan's fantasy of
an impermeable defensive umbrella, or before that the brief national
obsession with civil defense. Remember that? At one point President Kennedy,
afraid of being politically outflanked by New York's shelter-crazy
Republican governor, Nelson Rockefeller, planned to create fallout shelter
space for 54 million people, who were to survive the nuclear aftermath on
barrels of crackers, water and hard candy. Civil defense succumbed to an
astronomical price tag and, as the cold-war historian Lawrence Freedman
dryly put it, "the basic unreality of the proposition that straightforward
measures were available to survive a nuclear war."
Now, too, there is no single leap of technology, no grand strategic gambit
or fortification that can render us completely secure against a determined
terrorist. That is not an argument for doing nothing, but for doing many
things at the same time, with the right degree of urgency and a steadiness
of purpose.
People who worry about terror for a living will tell you that the first
priority is prevention. That means repairing an intelligence network that
was built for the last threat, and locking up (or diluting) the fissile
stockpiles where the material for ultimate terror is available. Prevention
of terror can be military, such as denying terrorists the conveniences of a
host state, and it can be geopolitical, such as pressing our Arab allies to
counter Islamist intolerance.
A close second is interdiction - securing routes and borders, inventing
better detection technology and installing it at ports and other choke
points, conducting stings to disrupt the market in fissile materials.
And if prevention fails, third comes response and recovery. New York City,
as befits the foremost target, has the most sophisticated response system in
the country, enhanced and refined by sad experience.
In the end, though, the question is not just how to fight terrorism, but how
to live with it. Even if you give our leaders passing marks (or the benefit
of the doubt) for dealing with the actual threat, they have been dreadful at
dealing with the fear of the threat. The silly color-coded gimmicks, the
pre-emptive we-told-you-so's, the hype and spin and bluster and political
opportunism, the willingness to make terrorism a lobbying prop for every
cause on the Republican agenda - these are eating away at the
administration's credibility. How much confidence can you have in people who
contrived a bogus claim of a Cuban bio-weapons threat just to embarrass
Jimmy Carter when he visited Castro? Sure, it is important to tell us if you
arrest a suspect contemplating dirty-bomb terror. It's cynical overkill to
stage a victory-over-terror press conference a month after the arrest - from
Moscow - and to invoke a newly invented category of military justice, all
because some loser dreamed of spraying Washington with gamma rays.
I live in a city that has been, twice, successfully targeted for major acts
of terror, and I believe that atrocities on a large scale remain well within
the means of bad guys. And yet, here I stay. Personally, I worry less about
a dirty bomb than about a suicide killer packed with Home Depot shrapnel.
Personally, I don't lie awake over the vulnerability of nuclear power
plants, though if I lived downwind of one I might keep some potassium iodide
tablets on hand. I do have bad dreams about the big one, an actual nuclear
explosion, but I practice what psychiatrists call healthy denial. I've
ordered a potted Ohio spiderwort for my windowsill; it changes color when
the radiation level increases. I plan to name it Tom Ridge.
That's me. Maybe you cope with the fear by reading up on the world. Or maybe
what works for you is a set of hazmat suits for the family, or a fallout
shelter. The companies that sell shelters on the Internet report a surge of
new business; makes a nice spare guest room, they say.
The urge to do something is normal, but problematic. I know a man who was
stricken with a serious case of doomsday anxiety during the cold war. He
pored over climate maps and studied the trade winds, looking for a refuge
beyond the reach of windborne nuclear fallout. The most promising haven he
found was a small group of islands off the coast of South America where the
radioactive poison would never reach.
Fortunately for him, the fear passed before he moved to his new sanctuary,
because a few years later it was under bombardment. The islands were the
Falklands.

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