The second Irak war will not be Vietnam again for several reasons. First and foremost Iraq doesn't have the Soviet or Chinese backing Vietnam had but will be utterly isolated. Secondly the Iraqi people don't believe in Saddam the way Vietnamese believed in Ho Chi Minh. Thirdly the Americans have now more conventional firepower, high technology weaponry and satellite intelligence etc. than during the Vietnam era. Fourthly everyone with a bit of sense agrees Saddam Hoessein is a dictator and criminal, oppressing his own people, which is quite something different from the north Vietnamese leaders who at least were idealists. So there will be some protest from Europe, but the anti-war movement within the US will be nothing like the anti-Vietnam-war movement. The war will not go on and on, but most probably will be over about as quickly as the Golf war of 1991 was; and that was very quick, remember? All Arabs unite behind Saddam? He would certainly like it, but there is little or no chance of that. Nothing of the sort will happen in Iran, why should it? They have been fighting Iraq for a decade, and Saddam is not their friend nor even co-religionist. And why would any muslim fundamentalists suddenly be able to take power in Saudi-Arabia next month, when they weren't in the previous year when their precious friends the Taliban were attacked? There is a point in the danger of fundamentalists taking over Saudi Arabia in the long run though. This country has been provided with weapons by the West for decades. But don't forget they fly American planes, need American spare parts, don't have satellites etc. I don't believe they stand a chance against US and British. And, guess what, they are not stupid like Saddam seems to be. They know this too. So, I'm sorry, but your scenario has a very small chances of becoming real. The Bush scenario will probably unfold more or less as planned. The main question is, what and who after Saddam... That's what keeps me busy. In any case we seem to agree that 'the empire' is going to win this war.
Jan Matthieu ----- Original Message ----- From: Ed Weick <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>; Keith Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 6:04 PM Subject: Re: Kenneth Lay in handcuffs? > Keith, I rarely agree with you, but I come very close to it this time. If > Bush attacks Iraq, it may be Vietnam all over again, something that goes on > and on, produces lots of body bags and, ultimately, tremendous opposition > both at home and abroad. > > Ed > > Ed Weick > 577 Melbourne Ave. > Ottawa, ON, K2A 1W7 > Canada > Phone (613) 728 4630 > Fax (613) 728 9382 > > > > Will we ever see Kenneth Lay in handcuffs? No, of course not. Like Ebbers > > of WorldCom, he's too big for that. It will be one of his underlings. > > > > If at all. > > > > Concern is already being raised that no Enron executives have been charged > > with malfeasance so far. I don't think they ever will be -- or at least > > not for a long time -- because evidence of too close relationships with > > Bush and Cheney will be incriminatory. If and when Enron executives are > > taken to court they will get off with relatively minor charges and > > punishments, despite the fact that they have ruined thousands of lives. > > > > How will Bush and Cheney delay proceedings? Quite easily. They are > > planning a major war in the Middle East. Americans will forget about > > relatively trivial matters in the coming months. > > > > Let there be no mistake. Just as soon as Bush starts landing troops in > > significant numbers in southern Iraq or Kuwait, Saudi Arabia will erupt in > > a fundamentalist Islamic revolution. It might well erupt before American > > troops are landed -- and then American troops will have to get in very > > quickly to protect the oil wells. Also, it is highly likely that > > fundamentalism in Iran -- somewhat sotto voce in recent years -- will > > re-erupt. > > > > I think Saddam Hussein's statement yesterday that all Middle East Arabs > > will unite against America will prove to be correct. Within a few months, > > possibly a few weeks, America will be fighting against large armies on > > three sides -- from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran. America can't possibly > win > > this sort of conventional man-intensive, tank-intensive battle because in > > this sort of warfare numbers count -- besides there'll be too many body > > bags to send home. > > > > I think we will find that America will threaten all the Muslim countries > in > > the Middle East with nuclear bombs (and may even use one or two as > prompts) > > to establish order. What Bush will do after then, goodness only knows, but > > at least he will have established some sort of control over the > > continuation of oil exports to America. He will keep his "allies" happy, > of > > course -- ensuring that Europe, Japan and China continue to receive Middle > > East oil, and supporting Russia in its problems with its adjoining Muslim > > nationalities. > > > > The coming Gulf War II will solve several problems for Bush quite besides > > guaranteeing oil supplies to America and being able to brush Enron under > > the carpet. It will help Congressional Elections in November. He'll be > able > > to reflate the economy from the depression into which it is currently > > heading. And, finally, he'll be able to sweep to power for a second term. > > > > That's the strategy, anyway. It might not turn out quite like that. It > will > > probably be a lot worse. In the coming year or two I think we might see > > savagery and deaths on a scale that hasn't been seen since World War II. > > > > Keith Hudson > > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------- > -- > > -------------- > > > > Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England > > Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > ________________________________________________________________________ > >
