Karen, Thanks for this excellent news service you've set up.
At 07:25 16/08/02 -0700, you wrote: > The plot thickens; Top Republicans Break With Bush on Iraq >Strategy > > By TODD S. PURDUM and PATRICK E. TYLER @ <http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/16/international/middleeast/16IRAQ.html> . . . . . cut >>> Indeed, the plot thickens. If my forecast is correct, Bush (and Blair) will proceed with troop landings in Kuwait (and maybe in the Kurdish areas of Iraq as an additional ploy) in order to be on hand as and when Saudi Arabia blows up, even if considerable Republican Party (and Labour Party) opposition builds up in the meantime. (Or maybe Bush will have to spill the beans confidentially to key Republicans. If the opposition dies away in the next few days then you can be certain that this is what he's done.) A few paragraphs from an article in today's Financial Times adds more credence to the idea that events now depend on King Fahd's state of health. <<<< FEVERED ISSUE OF KING FAHD'S HEALTH by Robin Allen Speculation over the Saudi succession has reached a critical stage . . . . . The premature news of the demise of King Fahd Bin Abdul-Aziz al-Saud, the kingdom's ruler, has been fueling a frenzied rumour machine since he had his first stroke nearly seven years ago. . . . The public obsession with the health of the Saudi monarch is not hard to understand. King Fahd is not your garden variety constiotutional monarch -- nor is Saudi Arabia just another oil producer. It is the sole owner of one quarter of proven global oil reserves, with a surplus production capacity it has used at least twice in 23 years to stabilise world markets in periods of regional tension. . . . . Under Saudi Arabia;s Basic Law, rule belongs to the sons and grtandsons of the kingdom's founder, King abdul-Aziz, who dies in 1953 leaving 45 sons, of whom King Fahd is the sixth. The king designates his heir apparent. For the past seven years, the heir apparent and first deputy prime minister, 76-year old Crown Prince Abdullak, has been de facto ruler. However, his authority has been regularly undermined because, analaysts say, he lacks the power to circumvent conservatives within and outside his family in order to drive through political, social and energy reforms he has launched since 1998. Among these conservative figures is the defence minister Prince Sultan, second deputy prime minister and widely regarded as second-in-line to the throne. . . . . Last Feruary, in a rare display of public hostility, Islamic clergy publicly disputed the al-Saud's claim to political pre-eminence, and criticise the family's dependence on the US -- widely resented for its support of Israel's military role in the occupied West Bank. A US military strike at Iraq, according to these analysts, could further foment domestic critcism and risk destabilising the House of Saud. . . <<<< This coming Sunday morning on BBC radio there will be an analysis programme on Saudi Arabia. Among the items will be "reports of brutal repression of the Saudi population", and "the US plans for the take-over of Saudi Arabian oil wells." Make of that what you will. Also, this evening, BBC TV discussed the fact that Blair refuses to allow Parliament to meet to debate the reason for the invasion of Iraq, and that probably half the Cabinet, including former Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, are strongly against it. Keith ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
