Harry, It's really all about Bush wanting to be a two-term president.
There's the old tag: "You can lie to all the people some of the time; you can lie to some of the people all of the time; but you can't lie to all the people all the time." In other words (and Blair should take this to heart, too!), Bush could bluff his way for quite a long time without actually solving the Al Qaeda problem, but all the doubts and disasters along the way gradually add up in the nation's collective mind. The cleaning-up process may take a long time (as it did with heaving out Nixon) but then the nation's verdict is powerful and final. It was already known towards the end of Clinton's time that the Al Quada was dangerous and needed tackling. It was put on one side when Bush came in. (This was not Bush's fault necessarily.) Then 11 September happened. (All the files on Al Quada suddenly disappeared from the CIA and were no doubt moved to a more secure location where investigation of Al Qaeda and Saudi Arabia has intensified.) Bush has been confusing the issue with all the talk about invading Iraq and so far the punters have bought it. So far he's got away with his total lack of success in capturing the leaders of Al Quada and Osama bin Laden (if he's still alive -- which some think he still is). So far, Afghanistan has not collapsed into warlordism again. But all this adds up. The collective mind seems to forget these things but doesn't really. Three or four months ago, there was the man on the plane who tried to set off the explosives in his shoes. There has been the man this morning with a gun in his holdall (and probably with several accomplices in the plane). Both of those almost certainly would have ended with plane crashes. I think Bush has been lucky so far. His luck is not going to hold much longer. Al Qaeda is bound to keep on mounting terrorist acts even if they're never as dramatic as the Trade Center episode. I'd be very surprised if another doesn't happen betwen now and 11 September. Then, on top of all this, a huge gas project involving several of the largest oil companies, apparently negotiated in June 2001 and due to be finally signed this March was "delayed" -- in truth, stamped on by the Wahhabi-wing of the royal family. This project would have been to the immense benefit of the (mainly American) oil companies and Saudi Arabia (that is, if the proceeds were divided among the people!). This, I think, was the last straw. Whether Bush like it or not this was final proof that the Saudi royal family as presently constituted was never going to be constructive towards America from then onwards -- never mind trying to root out the Al Qaeda. This well-financed, well-protected terrorist group within Saudi Arabia would be a constant thorn in US flesh and would long outlast King Fahd's death and even Saddam Hussein's. Bush now has a Damoclean sword above his head and it will remain there throughout his whole presidency -- and the next term -- if he doesn't do something effective about Al Qaeda. That's how I see it. Bush is bluffing about invading Iraq, occupying Baghdad and overthrowing Saddam Hussein. The cost in American deaths, Iraqi civilian deaths, and the opprobrium heaped on Bush from the rest of the world would be too high a price to pay. Saddam Hussein has called Bush's bluff and will simply sit tight. (He's probably worked out what it's all really about.) Whether Saddam Hussein has developed biological and chemical weapons is impossible to say. He might well have done. He might use them on easy targets -- such as invading American forces. But it's almost certain that he can't deliver those biological weapons accurately and effectively (that is, with wide dispersal at sufficient concentration) at any great distance. And if he were to try -- just once -- in Israel's direction then you can be certain that Baghdad would be nuked within hours. No question. The Ashkenazi Jews who comprise the Israeli Cabinet have the highest IQs in the world by a long chalk and their tradition always has been "an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth". And this, of course, is an additional reason why the Arabs hate them so. Keith At 10:43 30/08/02 -0700, you wrote: <<<< Keith, As I said, I think the target is Saudi Arabia - if things are not properly sorted out there. There is not a little hope in that statement - and the following - for a war against Iraq is about as potty a venture as we can have. However, if this is a beautiful bluff to get Saddam to accept effective weapons inspections, that would be a step forward. Particularly, if he sees that "under pressure from allies" Bush might pull back if meaningful inspection is resumed. Of course, if Saddam is adamantly opposed to any inspection, we must wonder what he has to hide. That might be frightening. For such a bluff to work, the threat of war must be clear and unambiguous. The threat to Saddam's rather opulent standard of living must be clear. There must be every incentive to allow the inspectors in with complete freedom of movement. The Unyielding positions are not in Bush's history. He negotiates - as I've said before. The question, which may soon be answered for us (keep ALL your fingers crossed) continues to be - is Bush still a conciliator, or has he been infected by Presidential hubris? Harry >>>> ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________
