Arthur,

At 22:36 02/09/02 -0400, you wrote:
>www.debka.com  is back after a break with some interesting and intriguing
>stories.  True or not they trace out different scenarios.

Thanks for reminding us of this source. As Jan wrote a week or two ago,
Debka has to be read with some discrimination.

However, the item about Saddam's "mysterious apathy" in the face of Bush &
Co's speeches seems so unusual that it strikes me as being authentic. If
Saddam calls some district governors to a meeting and then harangues them
about the state of their sanitation systems instead of the condition of
their defences against an American attack, then this information is not
likely to have been invented. 

Also, Debka says that several other defence preparations in Iraq are being
wound down rather than being accelerated. But I don't believe that Saddam
is necessarily in a state of depression or is apathetic, as Debka implies.

If Saddam is unworried it's because he probably has a shrewd idea what lies
behind Bush's apparent bellicosity. Let's recall that last week the Qatar
Foreign Minister went to Baghdad for talks. The Americans have just
completed a large airbase in Qatar and, undoubtedly material is already
being delivered there. Are the materials and facilities relevant to large
American troop landings (for subsequent use in an invasion of Iraq) or does
the Qatar airbase seem to be equipped for units of 2-3,000 personnel only
as seems to be happening in several other Emirates around Saudi Arabia --
more suitable perhaps for special purpose operations into Saudi Arabia if
the oil wells are in danger. The Qatar Foreign Minister ought to have been
able to give an informed opinion to Saddam Hussein.

Keith
 
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