Interesting
link it is. Thanks Bill.
Two things
stood out, for me: the discussion of the growing gap between oil consumption
and oil discoveries. Perhaps this
is the single ‘best’ measure of the medium-term oil situation. Second, the formation of the ‘Peace
Caucus’ – an alliance of NGOs that seeks to offer an alternative global
agenda. It will be interesting to
see how this organization evolves. Perhaps we could offer work issues part of
their discussions?
Best
regards,
Lawry
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On
Behalf Of William B Ward
Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002
12:29 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Re: Population Demand?
(was Re: Death of mass democracy (was Re: Fw: No going back?
Keith,
I agree swith your analysis in the short
run re oil supplies and demand has actually lessened and alternative are coming
forward.
However, what the west fails to appreciate
is that there are 200 million middle class Indians and the Chinese middle class
is growing rapidly so I feel that we are talking about a couple of decades at
the most when we will have problems. Oil that is still untapped, perhaps excelt
for Russia, will be muc more expensive to retrieve and the Saudis are beginning
to find greater cost in what they have left.
Here is an interesting link:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/
Bill
On Tue, 17 Sep 2002 20:46:30 +0100 Keith
Hudson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
There is certainly great inequality of consumption between
> nations
> but most of the world doesn't yet have the technologies or economic
> structures which could absorb many resources. The biggest rival to
> America
> in its future needs for Middle East oil and gas, China, still has
> quite
> modest requirements.
>
> Although the theoretical end is in sight for oil and gas (tailing
> off from
> about 2030 onwards*) this doesn't yet enter much into the
> calculations of
> business and certainly not of politicians with even shorter time
> scales.
>
> (*However, the tailing-off will be a great deal more protracted than
> the
> rapidity of the take-up between 1950 and now. In other words the
> supply
> curve is very assymmetric.)
>
> The competition at present is rather between producers. It's still
> a
> buyers' market even though OPEC, and particularly Saudi Arabia as
> its
> biggest producer, has a degree of control and can manipulate the
> price of
> oil within quite large margins. From the political point of view the
> royal
> family of Saudi Arabia is far more dependent on being able to supply
> a
> large and dependable export market (America) than America is
> dependent on
> SA imports, large though they are at present. Any significant
> decrease in
> SA imports into America would cause huge economic problems for
> America but
> it would probably be able to scramble around and make up the supply
> within
> three or four years -- it wouldn't be the end of the American
> political
> system. But, for the Saudi Arabian royal family, any further
> decreases in
> their ability to make welfare payments to their large numbers of
> unemployed
> (particularly young men) and other state supports, would certainly
> bring
> about the end of their autocracy forever, and quite possibly bring
> about
> the sort of long-term civil wars that already characterise something
> like
> 20 or 30 countries around the world.
>
> If we're at Jeremy Rifkin's end-stage, then I think we're at the
> very
> beginnings of it. It will take at least a century to play itself
> through.
>
> Keith
>
>
>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
> --------------
>
> Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
> Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail:
> [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> ________________________________________________________________________
>
>
