Karen,

Please don't get carried away by the apparent democratic discussion of
Blair's support for Bush. Blair thanked the Speaker of the House of Commons
for allowing the House of Commons to be recalled for the debate. In truth,
the Speaker does what the Prime Minister asks, and Blair only asked because
he'd come under increasing pressure from MPs of his own party for weeks.
Otherwise, his government might have broken in two even though he has the
support of the Tories. 

The latest opinion poll in this country, incidentally, says that about 70%
would support a Bush/Blair initiative in Iraq -- but only if there's a new
specific UN resolution. I can't help feeling that both Bush and Blair are
now getting themselves into deep water politiclly. The economies of both
countries are dithering now, poised between the possibility of mild growth
only but much more seriously of decline. Even the IMF, which has always
been at least 1% more optimistic in its GDP growth forecasts than actually
turns out, is becoming (realistically) pessimistic now. The electorates of
both countries could turn on both leaders with a vengeance in 6 or 9
months' time.

Anyway, I've read the articles you've mentioned with interest.

M'mm . . . the more I'm reading and thinking about the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld
anti-Iraq policy, the more confused I'm becoming about what are their true
motives. Are they genuinely anti-Saddam? Are they choosing to invade Iraq
as an example of a general statement about the need for governmental reform
in the Middle East? Are they after Iraqi oil as a bargaining counter to
Saudi oil? (Iraq has the second largest resources in the world after Saudi
Arabia.) Will the Americans turn on Iran next? What is the influence of
Bush Snr's membership (and that of the bin Laden family) of the Carlyle
Group and their interest in armaments and defence secrets (the Group has
just bought part of our Ministry of Defence)? Are they acting as a sort of
more effective United Nations in the interests of world security?

Out of sheer fatigue, I'm dropping back to known facts about the business
background of this group and what is alleged about their various share
dealings, and asking quite simple questions about their character as if I
were interviewing them for a job or if I were a shareholder in companies
they ran. I can only surmise that far too much mud is sticking to them and
that they are not people I could possibly trust. I'm reminded of the slogan
that did the most damage to Nixon: "Would you buy a used car from this man?"

I can only think that there's a huge tragedy in the making -- either to
Iraqi civilians, or to the fragile thing that still counts for democracy of
sorts in America and England, or to our future economic health (on which
the Third World is totally dependent also).

Trying to think how to end this posting, I've been standing at the door to
my garden as the sun goes down. I'm attracted towards an even more
simplistic conclusion than I've ever written before.  What is happening now
is not the end of history, or ideology, or the nation-state (as per
Fukuyama), nor a clash of civilisation (as per Huntington), nor even
Armageddon (as per some Christian fundamentalists) but the first signs of
increasingly bitter clashes for resources. Cheap oil and gas have given us
such easy economic growth for the past 70 years and could continue for
another 20 years or so at present rates before it starts to become really
serious. But the end of this 'easy-era' is clearly now in sight and known
only too well by the large oil companies. America corporately (if it did
but know it), and Bush/Cheny/Rumsfeld in particular -- and the businesses
they are personally associated with -- are now beginning to establish their
claims for the lion's share of the bulk of the cheapest sources that now
remain.
 
Keith 
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Keith Hudson,6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England
Tel:01225 312622/444881; Fax:01225 447727; E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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