KBN News Updates

[Karen Watters Cole]

For my overseas online pen pals who can’t watch nightly, and my non-political junkie friends, customized news highlights from Nightly Business Report on Public Broadcast Service, courtesy of the Karen Broadcast Network.  There appears to be more open discussion of a returning or double dip recession, folks. From the Argus Media Group, Oil Editor Peter Rosenthal @ http://www.nbr.com/: 1.  Talk of war with Iraq and projections of a colder winter are driving heating oil and natural gas prices up.  2.  Crude oil prices are rising, partly due to the interruption of recent hurricanes to production, but also OPEC has not increased production.  3.  Oil traders are looking for any kind of a timeline from Pres. Bush and any benchmarks or hurdles he sets for Iraq re: weapons inspectors. 4.  Supply interruption of a few days or weeks should trigger opening the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve), as well as price above $35 which could trigger a return to or another recession in the US.   10/07/2002: Commentary; Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Economy.com @ http://www.nbr.com/: “The economy's near term prospects have taken a decided turn for the worse. As recently as this past spring, the recovery appeared on track to evolve into a sustained expansion. This sanguine outlook has been since derailed, however, and it now appears the recovery will at best struggle for some time and could very well fall back into recession. The most recent weight on the economy is the heated international discourse over a possible invasion of Iraq. The economic fallout is already evident. The war premium in oil prices is reflected in the high $1.50 we have to pay for a gallon of gasoline. The thick pall hanging over financial markets and flagging business and consumer confidence are also due, in part, to the substantial economic and political uncertainties. Fears over the economic impact of an invasion of Iraq are not misplaced. All but one recession since World War II has been preceded by a sizable jump in global oil prices. To ensure that the economy does not devolve back into recession, policymakers should quickly begin deliberation over a new round of economic stimulus. At the very least they should quickly extend unemployment insurance benefits, which are now expiring for many, and carefully consider a payroll tax holiday, say, for this November and December. Policymakers should also even contemplate accelerating those marginal tax rate cuts legislated to occur in coming years. This last proposal will be costly to the federal government. And to mitigate the impact on long- term interest rates, taxpayers should also be told that those tax cuts will be eliminated three to four years from now. All of this provided in the next few months would jump start confidence and the economy, even as we gear up for war.” So, since Talk of War is affecting the economic tone significantly, what do the American people think about the BIG QUESTION?  Two professionals, Andrew Kohut of the Pew Center for the People and the Press, and Steven Kull of the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland's School of Public Affairs give their opinions from the latest polls, which show both genuine concern and strong support for eventual confrontation, but no sense of urgency.  In summary, the public wants the government to protect us, but we don’t want to turn the president loose with all the keys.  Read the transcript and hear the RealAudio @ http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec02/iraqpolls_10-07-02.html William Saleton wrote a complaint last week about the lack of debate on Iraq in the Senate, saying that individual senators are going to the podium speaking to an empty house.  (http://www.slate.com/?id=2072061).  However, he detailed the speech by Sen. Max Cleland (D-GA) a Vietnam vet paraplegic, who said in the end he would support the President’s resolution, not the alternatives because the enemy needs to know that America speaks with one voice, and especially because he wanted to support our soldiers.  Sometimes it is not only how you say the message, but also who says the message.  We don’t challenge the motives of a man who has paid the price in battle and continues to serve his country in public service but we are nervous about a man who played at deferred service and who has a well-known personal reason for putting someone out of business, not to mention covering up the Reagan-Bush presidencies when US companies sold the biochemical technology and materials to Iraq when Iran was public enemy #1. To end this broadcast on a note of humor, Sen. Trent Lott (R-LA) has gone in front of the cameras deriding Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) who just returned from a trip to Baghdad with two others from Congress, all military vets by the way, about McDermott’s comments questioning the President’s intentions.  Lott said it was deplorable to question the integrity of an American President.  I almost fell off the chair laughing.  This from the same man, you recall, who spent a lot of time deriding Pres. Clinton in front of many cameras.  Is hypocrisy worse than short-term memory loss?  And in reference to the 1998 Congressional resolution supporting regime change in Iraq, please remember that both houses of Congress were GOP-controlled and there was a Democratic president in the White House, so that passing a strong resolution no one expected to go anywhere was as easy as awarding the blue ribbon to the youngest or oldest pie baker at the county fair.  What you don’t know, will hurt you. – Karen Watters Cole