At 05:55 23/12/02 -0800, Stephen Straker wrote: >FWers - > >Here is a 1995 essay on a hybrid car by the Lovinses. It >identifies and takes on the political and economic forces >arrayed against the future. Along the way it takes up the >question of oil and Iraq. > >Comments?
Let me say straight away that I have a great deal of time for Amory Lovins and I'm looking forward immensely to reading his latest book, "Small is profitable: The Hidden Economic benefits of making Electrical Resources the Right Size" because I believe that this will be the essence of the energy technology of the future (and thus our economic system). However, I can't be enthusiastic about Lovins' 1995 ideas for the hyperefficient hypercar, desirable though it certainly is in principle. The significant data which queers his pitch occurs only towards the end of his article where he says that in America, for example, about 40% of its fossil fuel imports are used for petrol for cars and light trucks. Now let's be very, very generous to Lovins and grant him that the hypercar that he describes will be five times more efficient than the present car and therefore affordable by middle-class Americans and others as the price of oil and gas starts shooting up in 10/20 years' time. (On the basis of the existing pace of car firms' R&D there's absolutely no chance of a hypercar within the next 30 years, but let's just suppose.) It will *not* mean that the peak of oil and gas production, expected sometime around 2030/40 will be delayed significantly. It *will* mean that at least 750 million middle-class Chinese, Indians and South-East Asians will be driving hypercars in addition to the 100 million Americans. If anything, fossil fuel resources will be consumed all the quicker. After all the techno-stuff of most of their article, the Lovinses get into a mess in the last couple of sections where they are considering wider political and strategic matters. It's yet another case (like our friends, the neo-classical economists!) of not being able to see the wood for the trees. The only solution to the gargantuan problems of tomorrow's energy shortages is quite simple to describe. We need to stop travelling about so much. In particular, we will have to stop the absurdity of daily commuting. We need attractive local communities in which to work and play and they need to be based on localised technologies -- of both energy and production systems. I have my own candidate for that -- Craig Venter and Hamilton Smith's solar-powered biogenetic methods -- and I think that this technology is already developing at such a speed that it will rapidly overhaul any R&D into the hypercar, silicon-solar cells, fusion reactors, wireless power and whatever else is presently talked about. Keith Hudson ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] ________________________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
