From: Raymond Bouchard [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
Sent: Monday, December 30, 2002 8:32 AM
To: Cordell, Arthur: ECOM
Subject: Meme 031
|
The |
Drachma-Denarius |
December 22, 2002
| From: | Raymond Bouchard |
| To: | Arthur Cordell |
| Subject: | Meme 031 |
Dear Arthur
Here's the latest edition of the Meme Pool,
the newsletter of web articles that 'deserve' to be repeated, re-used and
re-cycled. Articles of interest to futurists and strategic planners are
presented once a week. They highlight the appearance and disappearance of
trends, technologies and paradigms.
EXISTENTIALISM
Thinking About The Unthinkable
Often in futures research we attempt to estimate the probability of an occurrence as well as its possible impact. There are many methodologies that can be used for risk assessment and impact analysis, but at the heart of them all is the ability to estimate either an objective or subjective sense of likelihood. (The ways in which we have learned to deal with risk is wonderfully described in Peter Bernstein's book, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.)
What happens when we do not have any experience whatsoever with the outcomes? How do we deal with risks that are so substantial that nothing in our experience permits us to deal with them? Nick Bostrum of Yale's Department of philosophy has taken a look at the problem. His essay on Existential Risk deals with a way of understanding and thinking about problems in which the adverse outcome would either annihilate earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. An existential risk is one where humankind as a whole is imperiled. Existential disasters have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization for all time to come. He gives a surprisingly large number of possible examples, including badly programmed super intelligence and misapplied nanotechnology. The article also has a number of hyperlinked references.
It may appear that the
whole argument is just an interesting intellectual game, since you can't
actually think about the unthinkable. But it is worth noting that within the
realm of theology a great deal of useful (and practical) thinking on social and
moral issues arose from discussions about angels and devils (e.g. Dante:
Inferno). Such beings do not actually have to exist in order to provide an
influence on behavior or create a structure for thinking about complex
issues.
[Bostrum]
BIOINFORMATICS
Accelerating
Evolution
Biology used to be one of the slowest and most tedious of the natural sciences. Experiments in agriculture, genetics and medicine were paced by the natural cycles of growth and regeneration. Bioinformatics is changing all that. Once an obscure part of computer science, it is becoming a key to biotechnology's progress. In the race for speed and agility, it offers unparalleled efficiency through mathematical modeling and data mining.
One of the immediate benefits is the speeding up of the development cycle in the pharmaceutical industry. Part of the problem in the discovery of new drugs is the large number of false leads that must be followed in order to get one successful drug. Bioinformatics helps by discovering failures much earlier in development thereby getting useful products faster as well as dramatically reducing costs. There are scientific benefits too. The successful mapping of the human genome (genomics) has led to more ambitious work with proteins.
The massive computing requirements driven by bioinformatics
have caught the interest of the big players: IBM (with its petaflop computer
Blue Gene), Cray, Sun, HP and many other specialty players. Even lowly PCs are
getting into the act by forming computing swarms called grids.
[Economist]
PUBLIC POLICY
Think
Tanks
Think tanks are institutions organized to conduct research and produce (somewhat) independent, policy-relevant knowledge. They fill a space between the academic world and government. Many of them have been pioneers in the development and use of futures research.
In its online publication U.S. Foreign Policy Agenda, the
Department of State describes the historic role of think tanks and provides some
insights into the formation of independent policy options in Washington.
[Dept of
State]
Although the article views the think tank as largely a U.S.
phenomenon, they do exist throughout the world. Japan's National Institute for
Research Advancement maintains a hyperlinked list of major think tanks
throughout the world.
[NIRA]
LITERATURE
Marcel
Proust
A few years ago I picked up a book by Alain de Botton entitled How Proust Can Change Your Life. I was sold and embarked on a long term project to read the entire In Search of Lost Time (aka Remembrances of Things Past). I am pleased to announce that on December 27 at noon I finished reading it. (Five volumes, 4347 pages in the Modern Library Edition).
It took Proust a lifetime to write, but as a result we get a unique view of society as it passed through the late 19th to the 20th century. In the first books we see people riding about in horse drawn carriages, but as the story proceeds we see the introduction of the motor car, the telephone, and the aeroplane. The flow of technology and history, though interesting, is not the main point though. We also see how people and generations change. The story is all about the passage of time.
The following links may be of interest to those wanting to
undertake a similar literary journey. De Botton's site contains a number of
reviews of his book, and I have provided a link to a Proust Support Group to
guide you through the ordeal. Meanwhile, I now plan to read it again, this time
in the original French.
[De
Botton] [Proust Support]
| The Meme Pool is a free newsletter, produced (roughly) weekly by Raymond Bouchard of Drachma-Denarius, a company specializing in applied futures research and strategic planning. If you have received this letter from a colleague and wish to get your own copy, or if you wish to stop receiving it, just send a note to me at [EMAIL PROTECTED]. |
