Back in December, we finished a study of the US and Iraq, and concluded that there was about a 20% chance of the US attacking Iraq. In January, I raised this to 25. Three days ago, I reduced the estimate to 15%.
Of course, most of my friends and colleagues deem me delusional, but the estimate stands. I hope. Cheers to all, Lawry > -----Original Message----- > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Behalf Of Keith Hudson > Sent: Mon, March 10, 2003 12:35 PM > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > Subject: [Futurework] Bush and Blair have lost the plot > > > As one political commentator after another has been saying all through the > day, it is unprecedented for a Prime Minister not to sack a Minister who > has spoken so scathingly of hismpolicies. Yet Blair has still not sacked > Clare Short. (I've been misspelling her name previously). > > Not will he. He dare not. For one thing,Clare Short is one of the most > competent Ministers in his Cabinet and there would be a wave of sympathy > from other Ministers and members of the Labour Party were he to give her > the heave-ho. > > For another, Blair knows now that he's on unstable ground. He is not going > to get a second resolution of the sort that he and Bush are after through > the UN. > > He knows the game is up and he does not know what to do or say now. He is > transfixed like a rabbit faced by a fox. He can only wait for > Bush to agree > to postpone invasion for much further into the future than March 17 and > thus satisfy Russia, France and China. > > I think Blair and Bush have totally lost the plot now. > > Bush can only proceed now by destroying Iraq, the United Nations and the > credibility of the United States. > > Keith Hudson > > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > ---------- > ------------ > > Keith Hudson, General Editor, Handlo Music, http://www.handlo.com > 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath BA1 5HX, England > Tel: +44 1225 312622; Fax: +44 1225 447727; mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > ________________________________________________________________________ > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
