It is quite obvious now (if it wasn't always obvious to others) that the Americans have no idea of how to bring about a new government in Iraq because any halfway democratic government would, of course, be a government dominated by the Shias, which in turn would become dominated by the Ayatollahs and clerics, as in Iran or Saudi Arabia. Women would be back into burqas in double-quick time and be denied any further advancement into the professions. It is also obvious that the Americans can't even administer basic functions in Baghdad and the rest of Iraq without relying on the Baathists -- which they cannot be seen to be doing.
Now that six British soldiers have been killed in an obviously well-planned operation, the British public won't tolerate many more such incidents and will want withdrawal. If assassinations of American soldiers continue at the present rate -- about one a day -- then it won't be all that much longer before the American public will want withdrawal, too.
It's also fairly clear (at least to me) that the Americans will not be able to guard the oil pipelines running westwards into Syria. The acts of sabotage will continue.
My hypothesis of some months ago on this list that the Americans will retreat to the easterly part of Iraq -- the Tigris valley with most of the oilfields -- will happen quicker than I contemplated then. The Americans will then be able to guard the pipelines which run south to the Gulf. And they'll stay there for at least 20 or 30 years until the oilfields have been fully developed and are then exhausted.
As for most of Baghdad, the holy cities, and the western part of the country, then I think the Americans will soon give up any possibilitiy of being able to govern it or bring about any acceptable form of government and will evacuate. They will leave it to the Sunni clerics, the Shia clerics and the Baathists to fight it out between them.
Keith Hudson
<<<< Hunt on for Iraq killers
British forces in Iraq are trying to find out who killed six members of the Royal Military Police in the south of the country. The bodies of the soldiers were found at a police station -- where they had been training local officers - in a village near Amara about 100 miles north of Basra.
In a separate attack in the same area, seven British soldiers were injured when their helicopter came under fire.They had been trying to reach two vehicles which had been targeted by Iraqi gunmen, leaving another British soldier injured. Two of the casualties were seriously injured.
The British military will be keen to establish whether the attacks were co-ordinated and which groups were behind them.Speculation has centred around either Baath party loyalists or other guerillas opposed to the coalition occupation.The area is dominated by Shia Muslims, a group which is extremely hostile to the old regime, but has seen demonstrations protesting against the British forces.
The Ministry of Defence is conducting a review of the way British military operations are carried out in Iraq.
>>>>
BBC Radio 4 25 June 2003
Keith Hudson, 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath, England
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