[Futurework] Sustainability and Iraq

[Ed Weick]

In an appearance before Congress, Donald Rumsfeld, American Secretary of Defense, estimated the cost of maintaining current US forces in Iraq at $3.9 billion per month. In addition, he estimated the monthly costs of American operations in Afghanistan at $900 to $950 million. Iraq works out to US$46.8 billion on an annual basis. Afghanistan is in the order of US$11 billion. What the total costs of these occupations will be will depend on how long they last. Even if Bush is a one-term President, the US cannot simply walk out of them, and five year stays would not seem unreasonable. Given that, the full costs of occupying Iraq could range from $230 billion to $240 billion, while Afghanistan could be in the order of $55 billion. The foregoing does not include the costs of rebuilding either of the occupied states. In the case of Iraq, the Bush administration was considering plans to help rebuild the country even before the war started, estimating the costs of repairing and reconstructing water systems, roads, bridges, schools and hospitals at $900 million. Arguably, this would be the low end of reconstruction expenditures. Costs could rise as reconstruction becomes more difficult with increased reaction to the American occupation. However, much of the required material and labour would originate in the US, so the money spent would flow back into American corporate and labour pockets. Is it affordable? Being able to meet the costs of the occupation and reconstruction could become seriously impaired by trends in the American domestic economy. The US government appears to have worked itself into a bit of a box with the recent Bush tax cuts. Because of the cuts, the investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has projected cumulative US federal deficits to 2013 period at $4.5 trillion. This assumes that the US will continue programs such as Social Security and Medicare and that it will have to extend tax cuts that are scheduled expire before 2013. (CBS) And there may be another problem. Many of the services that Americans take for granted are deteriorating, and their repair may become difficult to afford. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council, deteriorating water works, pollution, and outdated treatment technology are combining to deliver drinking water that might pose health risks to many residents of America's largest cities. And US health care, already by far the most expensive in the world on a per capita basis, will need continued fixing and upgrading. It may also have to be extended because it still leaves out over 40 million uninsured people. As well, a study by the US National Education Association suggest that the school system is badly in need of repairs: Leaking roofs, asbestos removal, modern technology, and new classrooms cost money -- and the price is going up. It's nearly triple an estimate the U.S. General Accounting Office made in 1995, which found our nation's schools needed $112 billion for repairs and modernization. At that time, the report found that nearly one-third of all schools needed extensive repair or replacement, nearly 60 percent of schools had at least one major building problem, and more than half had inadequate environmental conditions. Such considerations, and others, suggest that the US may well have to choose between rebuilding Iraq and Afghanistan and rebuilding America. It also suggests that the US administration may have to be a little more careful about making commitments to rebuild when it decides to go about wrecking another state. Ed Weick