George, thanks for passing on Ken's thoughts, and Ken, I hope you don't
mind my passing your thoughts, minus personal references, on to the
Futurework list, which is run out of the U. of Waterloo. I'm sure
some on the list will find your classification of exportable and
non-exportable industries interesting. If you want information on
'Futurework' go to
http://www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/Research/FW/
Just a few comments, Ken, on the points you make. I'm not sure that
what the Americans have done or are doing could be described as "ruthless
drive for efficiency". In ever so many respects, they are the least
efficient society on earth, consuming vast resources and indulging in a very
wasteful lifestyle. In many parts of the world, people make do and
operate complex societies with far less. I would agree that Americans
have been very innovative and that it has been possible for them to be that
because they have had few constraints imposed on them. Until very
recently, they've had access to almost unlimited resources and a very wealthy
market able to absorb almost anything they've produced. That very
fortunate period may now be passing into history. Resource stocks are
beginning to run down and wealth, both natural and manmade, is being
depleted. That jobs that have produced income in the American homeland
are being exported won't help.
And, as a second point, I'm not so sure that other countries are going to
adopt the capitalist system, if by that system you mean something like the
American system. Americans were lucky because they didn't have much of a
system to begin with, so they could invent it as they went along. Other
countries have had systems in place for a very long time, and much of the
current international struggle is about maintaining those systems in the face
of the pressure of globalization, American style.
I'd also question whether we can seriously expect to maintain a healthy
society and economy if we were to export several of the activities you
list. Could we really expect India or China to do our engineering,
research and marketing for us?
Ed
The Americans have been successful I think
because of one thing - they have perfected a system that holds as it's one
goal the ruthless drive for efficiency. As other countries adopt the
capitalist system, it's only a matter of time before things even
out.
As developing countries invest in infrastructure (roads,
power/water, communications, education), and as the educational level raises,
am thinking more high level 'thinking' type jobs are going to move
off-shore.
Jobs that can be exported are:
> manufacturing
(software and goods)
> clerical work (government / financial /
insurance)
> telephone sales / marketing
> web development
>
engineering
> research
>
The jobs of the future that can't (or
won't) be exported:
> teaching
> civil service
> building
trades
> transportation (trucking and ware-housing of goods)
>
fire, police, ambulance
> Medical (doctors, hospitals, dental)
>
Mining and forestry
> Travel (hotels)
> retail/commercial sales
and service
> agricultural
Looks like the old economy all over
again.
Ken.
