Chris, Good sleuthing. Do you think it's going to evolve into real currency transactions with only 1000 registrants for Sept. 1? Surely it's just, er, educational fun. If so, I like it. How do you suppose the house can stay afloat with all the cynics who will be participating?
Natalia ----- Original Message ----- From: Christoph Reuss <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, August 01, 2003 3:39 PM Subject: [Futurework] Next Bet: Betting on U$ Coups, Lies, Corruption > August 1, 2003 > FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE > > CONSORTIUM FOLLOWS PENTAGON LEAD WITH NEW TERROR MARKET > AmericanActionMarket.org will attempt to predict White House actions > > Contact: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Inspired by the futures market in terror and war that the Pentagon released > earlier this week (and then immediately yanked; see > http://news.google.com/news?q=%22Policy+Analysis+Market%22), a consortium > of computer scientists, political scientists and others announced today an > online futures market in White House behavior. > > "The Pentagon felt that a market in terrorism futures could predict > terrorism," said AAM spokesman Tad Hirsch, a researcher at MIT's Media Lab. > "If the market is indeed such a powerful tool, then it should be directed > at the most urgent question facing the world: what will the White House do > next? And the second most urgent: what is it doing right now?" > > The site, http://www.AmericanActionMarket.org, will offer various > categories of "futures" that users can bet on and trade. Some of these have > easily verifiable outcomes: > > * Who will be the next foreign leader to move from the CIA payroll to > the White House "most wanted" list? > > * What will be the next major White House lie to break, and how will > the White House attempt to control it? Will the attempt be > successful? > > * Which corporation will be next to see its close relationship to the > White House erupt in scandal? > > (See http://www.AmericanActionMarket.org/concept.htm for more examples.) > > In addition, AAM will also allow users to place and trade longer-term > wagers on current or past scenarios that are in the short term unverifiable > because of White House secrecy, and which will only be proved or disproved > via impeachment hearings, journalistic sleuth-work, etc. For example: > > * Was Rumsfeld the first to suggest using the attacks as pretext to > overthrow Saddam Hussein, as reported in the press, or did the idea > first come from others? > > * Was the invasion of Afghanistan planned from the start as a > stepping-stone to an attack on Iraq? > > * Was the President fully conscious of the lies in his pre-war > speeches, or were the decisions to lie taken by others? By whom? > > * How important a long-term factor in the 2003 Iraq was Iraq's > expulsion of U.S. and British oil companies from Iraq between > 1972 and 1975? > > (See http://www.AmericanActionMarket.org/concept.htm for more examples and > sources.) > > As evidence is accumulated to prove or disprove a particular future, its > market value will change; this change may serve analysts as an indicator of > a scenario's likelihood, even if a final resolution of the bet is never > achieved. > > Just as a gambler buys chips at a casino, users of the AAM system will use > a secure webpage to buy "Smart Dollars," which they will then use for > trading. Users will be able to "cash out" at any time by trading in their > "Smart Dollars" for real ones, with 10% going to charity. > > Hirsch acknowledges that the value of markets as predictors is not certain, > but he insists it's worth trying. "If there's even a small chance this will > help predict what the White House will do, it's well worth the effort, > given the stakes." > > > AmericanActionMarket.org will be fully functional and ready for bets on > October 1, the day the Pentagon's now-defunct futures market was scheduled > to open. > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
