Karen,
At 19:48 25/10/2003 -0700, you wrote:
<<<<
Has anyone read anything lately about ongoing searches for Saddam or
Osama? We are still looking aren't we?
>>>>
I'm sure the Americans are still looking. I am not at all surprised that
they haven't found Osama because of the mountainous terrain in
Afghanistan and the carteful protection that the Taliban must be giving
him. I'm a bit surprised that there hasn't been any spectacular terrorist
incident in the West in the last 18 months or so. I have two
mini-theories here: 1. Osama has been having medical treatment.
Apparently his kidneys have been in poor condition but his latest video
appearance (and I think it's accepted as current and genuine, even by the
CIA) suggests that his health is much better than it was; 2. Since the
failure of the shoe-bomber, and possibly one or two more potentially
dramatic incidents that have failed and that we haven't heard about,
Osama is devoted his attentions to his primary concern -- the influence
of America over Saudi Arabia. (The advice given by our Foreign Office
yesterday for British travellers to avoid SA -- and without consultation
with the SA government -- suggests very strongly that SA is at explosion
point now. The frequent clips we've seen lately on TV of Al-Qaeda
terrorists being captured and weapons being discovered by the SA
authorities is rather reminiscent of the publicity that US and UK
governments make when they catch drug smugglers. In other words, they are
losing the battle [in both cases].)
As for Saddam, I have been rather surprised that he hasn't been captured.
The Americans must be patrolling everywhere in the Tikrit region, hoping
that someone will reveal where he is. But, given the fact that he, his
Baathist henchmen (and at least two other groups that he set up with arms
before the invasion), together with Arab tribal chiefs and the Sunni
Moslems have everything to lose if and when the Shia Moslems take over
Iraq when a constitution is finalised means that there's probably an
ultra-secure, highly cellular network operating there. I imagine that
Saddam could be captured at any ttime due to some accident or other, but
my guess is that this network will hold together. Although a Shia
administration is probably two or three years off (despite the US need to
bring it about soon for credibility reasons), the Saddam/Arab/Sunni
network know that there'll be a bloodbath at some stage and they'll be at
the receiving end of it.
Keith
Keith Hudson, Bath, England,
<www.evolutionary-economics.org>,
<www.handlo.com>,
<www.property-portraits.co.uk>
