What did others think of Wolfowitz's demeanour when he gave his press conference yesterday immediately after the rocket attack on the El Rashid Hotel?  He was described in one of my papers this morning as 'nonchalant'. I've observed Wolfowitz very closely whenever he's appeared on TV. Yesterday, he struck me without any doubt as being very badly shaken.

I heard someone connected with the WH describe the sabotage last week of the northern pipeline as the "third attempt" to stop oil being exported through Turkey. I've also been counting very closely since the beginning of the war and last week was at least the sixth time a major explosion has occurred.

I don't think there can be any doubt that the Bush team is very worried indeed now. They're hoping against hope that somehow the terrorism in Baghdad and sabotage in the oil fields will ease and that somehow the perfect Iraqi consitution will float in through the window. It is possible I suppose that terrolism could ease off if the Americans expose some major part of Saddam's network, but I don't see much chance of the sabotage ending. This is by far the most politically sensitive target. But quite beside the security dangers, I don't see how the large oil corporations will go anywhere near the northern oilfields until the matter of a strictly legitimate Iraq government is finalised. And I just can't see any hope of that at any time. How can Bush ease the tensions between the Shias and the Sunnis, or between the moderate Shias and the extremists without being as oppressive as Saddam was? Unless he can do that then a consitution has no chance at all.

Before I push up the daisies I think this will be seen to be the worst mistake that America has ever made in the whole of its history. And it will be recognised as being a criminal one, too. If the whole affair weren't such a tragedy for tens of thousands of Iraqis whose lives have been blighted and the destruction of valuable infrastructure, then I could watch how Bush is going to get out of his present impasse with great fascination, not to say relish -- particularly if the economy doesn't respond by the spring. He will not only be another one-time president but he might well be the most despised one -- and well before the election. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans won't have to find an emergency candidate during the summer. If I were a Republican senator I would be gathering a few friends around me and short-listing possible candidates right now.

Keith Hudson


 
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>, <www.handlo.com>, <www.property-portraits.co.uk>

Reply via email to