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Arthur,
I second Fernea, Lewis' earlier works and Khadduri. Philip Hitti [deceased]
wrote good history. http://leb.net/fchp/hitti.htm. Gustav
von Grunebaum [deceased] inic.utexas.edu/menic/meoc/sites.html
Let me add some of my old buddies:
Bill
Bill
Quandt, Christina Harris, Elizabeth Fernea, Bernard Lewis' early works, J.C.
Hurewitz, Rohan Gunaratna, Majid Khadduri on jurisprudence, Lenni Brenner,
John Esposito, Karen Armstrong, L.P. Harvey.
Enjoy.
You said,
.
On MIddle Eastern matters, there are several scholars
and observers I trust
Can you suggest names, books or URLs?
Can you specify the subject matter?
Lawry
Are there URLs, books or commentators that you can suggest that
as you say
"don't have axes to grind, and who are curious and continuously
updating their views and their information from primary sources. They
generally know the language of the peoples they are studying, and so can
access primary sources easily. Their forecasts have proven over
significant periods of time to be accurate and
thoughtful."
arthur
Hmmm. Good question. On MIddle Eastern matters, there are
several scholars and observers I trust. These are people who
don't have axes to grind, and who are curious and continuously
updating their views and their information from primary sources. They
generally know the language of the peoples they are studying, and so
can access primary sources easily. Their forecasts have proven over
significant periods of time to be accurate and
thoughtful.
I suppose it isn't a matter of 'trust' as much as it is an
assessment of the caliber of their information and
thinking.
'Trust' to me has to do with character and integrity. Someone
might have a bias that disqualifies him as a reliable source of
information, but his character nonetheless induces me to trust him
with regard to, say, making and holding to commitments. For
example, I go climbing with a fellow whose political views are
downright goofy, yet, on the face, I trust him
completely.
Cheers,
Lawry
So Lawry who do you trust?
Good morning Karen and all,
After a interesting start some time back, "Stratfor" has
revealed itself as predominantly interested in Israeli
affairs.This means that everything that touches on Israel's
security is viewed through an Israel-first perspective. This is
another of those. The subject of terrorism has been one of the
topics so exploited. The writer reveals himself ignorant
of:
1. Ramadan and its meaning
2. Terror organizations, their capabilities and their
communications
3. Al-Qaida
The US will find it useful to blame resistance in Iraq on
'bad guys', including 'foreign fighters.' By doing so, the US
hopes to regalvanize domestic support for our actions in
Iraq. But keep in mind that the US does not have much of a
local human intelligence capability in the Middle East. We depend
much on others to tell us what is going on there. Like the "WMD"
fakery, the US is prone to be taken in on other matters, including
'foreign fighters' and 'global terrorism'. The difference this
time around may be that our journalists, having been burnt once,
may this time insist on some of the first-hand checking of
facts that journalists are supposed to do.
Meanwhile, I would recommend a healthy dose of skepticism
on anything coming from "Startfor".
Best regards,
Lawry
Stratfor Weekly (free intel)
10.27.03: Ramadan attacks raise fears of global
violence
Key selected excerpts:
"The
string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for U.S.
and other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these
attacks a symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda to its
allies around the globe -- to kickstart
a campaign
of attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure
across the globe? Although the answer currently is unclear, the
bombings will cause Western governments and businesses to
respond as though Ramadan will be a month of
bloodletting.
...The
ability of militant Islamist organizations to
act
in concert on a global scale
is a critical concern for the United States and its allies.
Washington's war against al Qaeda is in part psychological, and
both sides need to demonstrate that the other cannot operate
globally without substantial risk. Al Qaeda hopes to raise the
costs of U.S. involvement in the Gulf region high enough that
Washington will pull out. The United States needs to break al
Qaeda's global network so that it eventually can back the
group's leadership into a geographic corner, lock it down and
finally quash its operational
capability.
...
Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect
list is long. The multiple
attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window
and
targeting sites in the central, north, south and western parts
of the city, indicate that
the group responsible is sophisticated, has
a
solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and
logistics necessary for carrying out such
operations.
...Decision-makers
in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will be
desperate to know the answers to these questions: Were these
attacks dictated solely by local issues? Were they conducted by
the Sunni guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are they tied only to
the U.S. occupation in Iraq, or are they meant to signal to
groups -- such as the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, the Taliban
in Afghanistan, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in
Algeria and the Aden-Abyan Army in Yemen or sleeper cells in the
United States -- to launch their own attacks against Westerners
and their allies?
Al
Qaeda is a global network but also an operational unit formerly
based in Afghanistan that might still be directing attacks
against the United States and its allies in the Gulf.
Al
Qaeda Prime,
the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan --
which conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major operations
-- has never used symbolic dates for operational
activities.
...
Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to survive
if it hopes to take the war against the Americans beyond the
Gulf. Using
the start of Ramadan as an agreed launch date
for a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals
throughout the world.
..
Western governments are worried about Ramadan attacks.
Australia,
Britain and the United States
all warned their citizens within the last few days of specific
plots in Saudi Arabia........A
spate of bombings in
Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney would
serve as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal blow to
the U.S. war against terrorism.
(end of excerpts. Attached in full)
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