|
Paul
Bremer III it is. His rank is Ambassador, though he is not accredited to an
Iraqi government. The rank gives him access to certain perquisites and general
credibility.
Bremer
is known as Jerry among those who know him, and among those who know him there
at least one who has characterized him as 'shallow and self-seeking' -- but that
was some years ago and Bremer, like all of us, may have grown and changed since
then. I hope so: he has a near-impossible task.
The US
position in Iraq is collapsing, and the best thing the US can now do is declare
victory and pull out. If it was done smartly (in both senses of the
word) it might undo a
substantial portion of the damage that our invasion of Iraq has
created.
Let us
hope that good sense will prevail.
Cheers,
Lawry
Keith, you of all people, have it just a little
wrong. I think you are referring to Paul Bremer III, no
Hamer.
Ed
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 9:49
AM
Subject: Hamer is not an Ambassador
(was Re: [Futurework] Has Saddam won?
Ray,
Hamer is Paul Hamer, the US Civilian
Administrator in Baghdad, whom Bush has taken to calling Ambassador Hamer
recently. This, of course, is a total misnomer because there is no
legitimate government in Iraq to whom Hamer could be an ambassador
to.
Just as a rider to what I wrote below, I would expect that
there'll be some relative quietude for a day or two while the Governing
Council mull over the message that Hamer has brought back with him from Bush
(which is: "What the hell do I do now? It's up to you guys to pull something
out of the hat.").
Of course, the Governing Council won't call for
elections for a Constitutional Council in order to establish the ground
rules for a General Election as Grand Ayatollah Sistani is calling for
because it will produce a Shia majority -- and thus, probably a Shia
government, which is the last thing that the Americans (or the Governing
Council) would want. So they'll dither.
There are, of course, spies
on the Governing Council despite being hand-picked by the Americans. When
Wolfowitz went secretly to Baghdad a week ago, he didn't stir from the Al
Rashid Hotel for security reasons, not did he even meet with the Governing
Council. But Saddam's rockets almost got him all the same -- only one floor
wrong. When the Council's state of dither and full extent of Bush's dilemma
becomes known to Saddam's henchmen and the other terrorist groups (though
they have certainly already guessed this) then I think we can expect
terrorism to be ramped up from then onwards in the Arab Sunni triangle.
It is obvious that the American Army has been instructed to find and
destroy Saddam at all costs (as they are also trying to do for Osama in
Afghanistan right now). Bush is desperate for some success like this even
though it will not help the main problem. Whether the troops succeed or not,
it is sure that they will further alienate the Iraqi people in Baghad and
environs by their activities. I cannot foresee anything that could stabilise
the beginnings of civil war now except a fairly immediate announcement of an
early General Election -- which, as suggested above, is exceedingly
unlikely.
Now that the US, UK oil corporations and LUKoil will not
move in and start developing the oilfields in northern Iraq, Bush has
absolutely no more arrows in his quiver. He is on a hiding to nothing. This
is very apparent in his conversations and announcements (as with Frost
today). He hasn't got a complete sentence in his head. He can only refer in
a jerky sort of way about the support of his only friend in the world --
Tony Blair. Except for a few Republican Senators, I think he will soon have
almost no support from anybody at the highest levels of the American
government and administration except his own immediate circle. He will be
impeached or dethroned pretty soon I would guess. There's no other way out
for the credibility of America. Putin can get away with these sorts of
antics in what is still a totalitarian state, but surely not in America! Or
am I dreadfully wrong?
Keith Hudson
At 09:06 14/11/2003 -0500,
you wrote:
Keith,
who is Hamer?
REH
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: Keith Hudson
- To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
- Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 2:17 AM
- Subject: [Futurework] Has Saddam won?
- During the invasion, or a little beforehand (I forget now), I
ventured the possibility on FW that Saddam would be a president long
after Bush is not.
- This is looking a little more possible now. At this moment I would
love to be able to read the morning newpsapers in Baghdad because what
at least two or three of them will be saying is that the Americans are
about to flee Iraq (Ed: the Americans' hasty departure will be the only
way in which Iraq will be similar to Vietnam!).
- Although this is not his intent, Hamer will be effectively handing
over power to the Iraqi Governing Council this morning. They will not
want to write a constitution because (a) it will delay elections for a
government until at least the spring or the summer; (b) it will probably
be impossible anyway. I think it is slightly more likely that the IGC
will assume -- or try to assume -- the powers of a Provisional
Government and rule by decree.
- But whether they do, or whether they fall out among themselves, I
think this is when the civil war will start. That is, this morning. From
last night, American troops are already desperately trying a last
attempt to find and kill Saddam. It is possible that they might succeed.
It seems slightly more possible that they will not. We are seeing TV
clips in this country of American troops acting atrociously in
rough-handling women and children in their own homes. But this will be a
brief episode because they will be overtaken by events.
- I think from today we will probably see the beginning of the
emergence of armed militias of all sorts -- Sunni, Shia and
Saddam+Fedayeen+Arab tribes -- as the American troops retreat behind
barricades in their compounds and are then shunted out of the country by
helicopter. This will be the first time that RPGs will not be fired at
American helicopters because they'll be in too much use between militias
on the ground.
- Bush and Cheney have already been humiliated by the refusal of US
and UK oil corporations and LUKoil to start oil development. His
humiliation is about to be complete during the next few weeks. Goodbye
George W. There'll be no library erected in your honour. Even in
Texas.
- Keith Hudson
- P.S. Yesterday, on Pulteney Bridge in town, I was (courteously)
accosted by four Americans who desired me to tell them where they could
obtain a traditional pub lunch. In return, it was refreshing to hear
what they thought about Bush, garnished by the fact that they were
Texans! Yes, four live Texans in Bath! So I told them the old anti-Texan
joke we tell over here that if they ever see a 50ft long red
pantechnicon, ladders on the top, with bells jangling and roaring down
the street, it was not a fire engine but a window-cleaner's van. We
departed fom one each other in high spirits and I hope they had a fine
lunch.
- K
- Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
|
