The term 'Great Game' never really entered the vocabulary of
my generation -- it belonged to my grandparents' generation. It refers to
the multiplicity of wars that went on between Great Britain and Russia
during the19th century when they were both extending their domains and
confronting each other -- Russia southwards towards Iran (then Persia)
and Britain northwards from India. They met in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan also had importance as part of an east-west axis because it
lay on the path of the Great Silk Road along which products were
exchanged between Europe and China for well over a thousand years until
ship-borne trade started taking over in the 17th century. And, since the
Americans attempted to rid Afghanistan of the Taliban and Osama bin Laden
following on from 9/11 -- and failed -- the poppyfields of the country
have now become the principal supplier of heroin to Europe. But even this
serious problem pales before Afghanistan's geographical position, along
with some of the other 'Stan' countries, as being pipeline routes for the
Caspian and neighbouring oilfields. Despite the despotic nature of these
Stan countries (the president of Uzhbekistan boils his domestic opponents
alive), there are are now American bases in all of these countries in
order to have influence over future oil supplies.
Western needs for oil are so important, and the despotic nature of many
Islamic countries in the oil-bearing Middle East and the Caucasian region
are so severe, that there are likely to be wars for many decades to come
-- along with the inevitable byproducts of terrorist groups which go
under the general brand-name of Al Qaeda. As the editor of Jane's
Intelligence Review -- arguably the most authoritative and
independent source of knowledge of weaponry and terrorism in the
world -- said on the Jonathan Dimbleby show which I saw on
ITV an hour or two ago: "It is likely that the present troubles in
the Middle East are something that our children, grandchildren and even
great-grandchildren will be dealing with in the future."
A member of this little list sent me the following Economist
review of a recent book. By coincidence, I was about to scan this into my
PC this morning anyway. The reviewer suggests that Lutz Kleveman , the
author of The New Great Game has given too much emphasis to oil.
However, as an ertswhile industrial chemist who can still dimly remember
the essentials of thermodynamics learned 40 years ago,, I would say that
the importance of oil (and gas) cannot be overestimated. It is absolutely
basic to the economies of the western world. It is so vital that I fear
for the future of so many ordinary Muslim people as they become embroiled
in the many other oil wars that are bound to follow the present
occupation of Iraq.
Keith Hudson
<<<<
Review of The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia by
Lutz Kleveman (Atlantic Monthly Press, 2003)
THE DEVIL'S TEARS
Across Central Asia and the Caucasus, people understand why oil is the
"devil's tears". Lutz Kleveman, a journalist who has
criss-crossed the region and met numerous oil barons, politicians and
warlords, as well as ordinary people, concludes that the great powers are
once again playing a cynical "great game", leaving blood and
tears in their tracks. The prize and the players, however, have changed
since the 19th century. What is at stake is not India, but access to the
region's abundant oil and gas resources -- possibly the world's largest
untapped reserves of energy. And tsarist Russia and colonial Britain have
been replaced by the United States, post-Soviet Russia, China, Iran and
Pakistan.
The United States, eager to satisfy its growing energy hunger and ease
its
dependence on Middle East oil, has been eyeing the region with
growing
interest since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia is
witnessing
America's creeping influence with unease and is struggling to maintain
the
upper hand in its traditional backyard. China has been pulled in by
energy
prospects as well, but also by its desire to quash support for
Uighur
separatists in its western province of Xinjiang.
The oil has to be moved from its source to its market, a problem of
pipeline
politics that has yet to be solved and which affects not only
producing
countries, but also their neighbours. The Americans are pushing for
a
westward route from Azerbaijan via Georgia and Turkey, bypassing
Russia;
Moscow wants to keep control over pipelines delivering Caucasian oil;
China
has been negotiating an eastward route with Kazakhstan; Iran, whose oil
is
in the south of the country but whose energy needs are in the north,
is
dreaming of oil swaps with Central Asian countries, a nightmare for
any
American administration. And Pakistan argues for a pipeline to go,
improbably, through Afghanistan.
Mr Kleveman links the instability of the region to oil greed. Russia,
he
says, has been fuelling ethnic conflicts in the newly independent
countries
of the Caucasus to keep them on a tight leash and undermine American
plans.
The United States, he says, has been using the war against terrorism as
an
excuse to establish a military presence in Central Asia. Everyone has
been
meddling in Afghanistan.
But the newly independent republics also know how to play the game.
"We need
the big oil pipeline so that we will continue to have the United States
on
our side against Russia," explains a Georgian diplomat. "You
see, Georgia
has got nothing else to offer to the world. We have to sell our
geographical
position." But many people he spoke to also criticise the United
States,
which is seen as a democratic country that now supports Central
Asia's
despots in the name of oil.
Mr Kleveman feeds his argument with enlightening historical background
and
colourful anecdotes from his extensive travels and interviews. But
by
looking at the region exclusively through the oil lens, he reduces
foreign
policy to simplistic energy imperialism, concluding with exaggerated
visions
of endless energy wars, floods of refugees, oil price shocks and
ever-growing foreign military commitments.
The Economist -- 22 november 2003
>>>>
Keith Hudson, Bath, England,
<www.evolutionary-economics.org>
